39.1% -- that is the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises on September 2, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous trading day. What does this figure mean? Simply put, for every 100 tons of polyester filament produced that day, less than 40 tons were absorbed by the market, with the rest adding to inventory pressure. More notably, while the sales-to-production ratio declined, most manufacturers chose to raise prices against the trend, resulting in significantly varied transaction price increases, and downstream users were not buying it.
Sales-Production Data: Divergence Reflects True Demand
Looking at the disclosed data for that day, the divergence among sample enterprises was extreme: the highest sales-to-production ratio reached 310%, while the lowest was 0%. Behind this extreme divergence lies not a demand recovery but local volume releases by a few enterprises through low-price promotions or concentrated pickups by contract customers. Most enterprises' ratios were concentrated in the 10%-40% range, with several even at zero, indicating severely insufficient overall market absorption.
Comparing the sales-production ratio with the price hike behavior reveals a clear strategic mismatch. Logically, price increases should be based on demand support or cost push, but currently downstream users are generally waiting on the sidelines, with only a few making small replenishments. This cycle of "price hike - wait-and-see - sluggish transactions" means that price signals are not effectively transmitted to the end market, exacerbating market uncertainty.
Price and Cost: Why the Hike Logic Fails
Pricing in chemical fiber products is usually anchored to raw material costs and supply-demand balance. From the cost side, if upstream raw material prices strengthen, it is normal for polyester filament to follow. However, the problem is that when the sales-production ratio remains depressed, price hikes further suppress purchasing willingness, creating a negative feedback loop of "higher prices, fewer purchases." The significant variation in transaction price increases on that day also indicates a lack of coordination among manufacturers; some enterprises may be raising nominal prices while keeping actual transaction prices stable or even lower.
For downstream weaving enterprises, rising raw material prices mean higher production costs, but terminal fabric order prices cannot be raised simultaneously. Under the squeeze on profits from both sides, weaving mills can only passively respond by reducing raw material purchases and consuming existing inventories. This explains why the sales-production ratio is difficult to boost - it is not that downstream does not need raw materials, but that high-priced raw materials exceed their affordability threshold.
Market Expectations: When Will the Wait-and-See Mood Break?
The core contradiction in the current market lies in divergent expectations. Upstream manufacturers try to repair profits through price hikes, but downstream users judge that prices still have room to fall and therefore choose to delay purchases. This game often ends with one side compromising in the absence of strong demand signals. If the sales-production ratio continues to stay below 40%, it is not ruled out that some manufacturers will resort to covert price cuts to recover capital, potentially loosening the price system.
Historically, the bottom of the chemical fiber market often appears after a period of persistently low sales-production ratios and high inventories. When most enterprises begin to proactively reduce production or cut prices to clear inventories, the market can truly rebalance. Currently, the sample data has not shown a trend reversal, and in the short term, polyester filament prices are likely to fluctuate. It is recommended that the industry closely monitor daily sales-production ratio changes and the price policy moves of leading enterprises.