The stalemate in the polyester filament market is not a recent development. On August 28, the average sales-to-output ratio of sampled enterprises stood at only 34.7%, up 5.3 percentage points from the previous trading day, yet still below the industry's prosperity line. More notably, the internal distribution of this ratio shows extreme divergence—one enterprise recorded a ratio of 500%, while several reported zero. This bipolar pattern does not indicate a comprehensive demand recovery but rather a structural mismatch: low-priced supplies are being selectively swept up, while high-priced goods find no takers.
The Game Behind the Numbers
The sales-to-output ratio measures the proportion of daily output sold. A ratio of 34.7% implies that over 60% of that day's production remained unsold. An examination of the sample distribution shows that more than half of the enterprises reported ratios below 20%, including zeros, while the 500% outlier likely reflects a one-off bulk order or inventory transfer, lacking general significance. Comparing the August 28 data with subsequent early-September reports reveals that the market has not escaped its stalemate range, and the price tug-of-war continues.
Downstream users' strong resistance to high prices is the core variable in this game. When polyester filament prices hover at elevated levels, weaving mills tend to consume their earlier inventories and postpone fresh purchases. Suppliers, in turn, attempt to maintain profit margins by holding prices firm. This psychological standoff leads to sluggish inquiries, sparse transactions, and a vicious cycle where buyers think prices are too high and sellers fear price drops.
Transmission Through the Industrial Chain
Polyester filament is a key raw material for the weaving sector, and its sales-to-output ratio directly reflects the operating willingness of textile clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Weaving zones such as Shengze and Changxing, which rely heavily on water-jet looms, are extremely sensitive to raw material prices. When the ratio falls below 40%, it typically signals high grey fabric inventories or insufficient orders, prompting weavers to reduce raw material purchases to pressure upstream prices. This transmission mechanism has recurred in multiple market cycles since 2024, and the current situation is no exception.
On the cost side, polyester filament prices are influenced by PTA and ethylene glycol fluctuations, while demand is constrained by terminal apparel export orders. The current low sales-to-output ratio means that upstream petrochemical price movements cannot be smoothly passed downstream, squeezing the processing margins of polyester plants. For foreign trade enterprises, this implies that export quotations must be made with greater caution, avoiding locking in raw material costs only to face subsequent price corrections.
When Will the Stalemate Break?
To gauge the market's direction, three signals warrant attention: first, whether weaving mills' raw material inventories drop to a critical point, triggering restocking demand; second, whether polyester plants announce production cuts or maintenance to support prices through supply contraction; third, whether terminal orders show signs of seasonal recovery, particularly the stocking wave for the "golden September, silver October" period. If none of these signals emerge, the stalemate may persist until mid-September.
It is worth noting that sales-to-output ratio data carry inherent sample bias, and strategies vary across enterprises of different sizes. Large polyester plants, backed by strong financial resources, are more inclined to hold prices firm, while small and medium plants may quietly offer discounts to secure cash flow. This divergence will lead to a hidden loosening of the price system, with actual transaction prices potentially falling below quoted levels.