On September 4, the polyester filament market witnessed a chilling trading atmosphere: the average sales-to-output ratio of sampled enterprises fell to 21%, down 4.8 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure not only implies that nearly 80% of production capacity failed to convert into actual sales but also reflects a stalemate between upstream and downstream players in price negotiations—downstream resistance to high-priced raw materials has evolved from sporadic complaints to collective rigid-demand purchasing.
What the Data Says About Demand
The sales-to-output ratio is a sensitive indicator of the chemical fiber market. What does a 21% ratio mean? In industry norms, above 60% indicates balanced sales and production, while below 40% signals inventory accumulation. The current figure has fallen deep below the warning line, suggesting a temporary demand vacuum for polyester filament. Looking at the distribution among sampled enterprises, the ratio varies from 0% to 40%, showing clear divergence: some companies maintain shipments above 20% due to customer loyalty, while others achieve almost no sales. This divergence is not accidental but a direct reflection of downstream users' "selective buying" strategy—they only place orders for cost-effective supplies and wait for the rest.
Notably, the decline in the sales-to-output ratio is not a cliff-like contraction in total demand but rather a transaction delay caused by price disputes. Downstream weaving enterprises do not lack orders; instead, they are compressing purchase frequency and reducing raw material inventories in the face of high prices. This just-in-time purchasing strategy is forcing polyester filament producers to reassess their pricing logic.
Transmission Effects of High-Price Negotiations
The high price of polyester filament is not an isolated phenomenon. Cost support from upstream PTA and MEG, coupled with maintenance expectations for some facilities, underpins the current high price levels. However, the cost-side logic appears fragile in the face of downstream demand. Weaving enterprises have limited profit margins; when raw material price increases exceed what their products can absorb, reducing production or delaying purchases becomes a rational choice. This upstream-downstream negotiation is reshaping the profit distribution pattern across the chemical fiber chain: upstream insists on high prices to destock, while downstream forces upstream concessions through low sales ratios.
Historically, consecutive days with a sales-to-output ratio below 30% often herald a price adjustment window. If the ratio remains sluggish for the next week, polyester filament producers may be compelled to cut prices or increase discounts to alleviate inventory pressure. For buyers, this is both a risk and an opportunity—current high prices may represent a temporary peak, but when the bottom appears depends on crude oil trends, PTA movements, and the recovery of end-user orders.
Structural Divergence Across Regions and Varieties
Although the sales data covers a national sample, responses across industrial belts may differ significantly. Weaving clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, such as Shengze and Changxing, are most sensitive to polyester filament price changes, and their operating rate fluctuations often lead other regions. If these areas continue to suppress raw material purchases, inventory pressure on polyester filament producers will intensify. Conversely, regions like Fujian and Guangdong, which focus on differentiated products with higher added value, may show stronger tolerance to raw material prices, keeping their sales ratios relatively stable.
Among varieties, POY, FDY, and DTY—the three main products—show that DTY, with higher processing fees, has stronger price support from producers, but downstream demand is equally constrained by weak apparel orders. FDY, heavily used in water-jet looms and linked to real estate and home textiles, reflects macroeconomic demand more directly.