25.8% — that was the average sales-to-output ratio for sampled polyester filament enterprises on September 3. A sharp drop of 13.3 percentage points from the previous trading day means that for every 100 tons of filament produced, fewer than 26 tons were absorbed by the market. This figure is not a one-day blip but a clear signal that the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream has entered a stalemate.
Market Context
Public industry data show that the day's sales ratios across sample enterprises were extremely uneven: some recorded active transactions at 90% and 70%, while many others hit freezing points of 0%, 5%, and 10%. This polarization is not accidental — it reflects highly selective purchasing behavior downstream, where certain specifications or suppliers still attract orders, but overall demand momentum is clearly insufficient.
High polymerization costs remain the core support for the current price system. Polyester filament producers attempted to pass on cost pressures with price increases, but downstream resistance did not subside. Thin buying and widespread wait-and-see attitudes have trapped the market in a tug-of-war between cost-push inflation and demand rejection. For weaving mills, high raw material prices directly squeeze profit margins, while weak end-order demand limits their willingness to accept price hikes.
Industry Impact
The sharp decline in the sales ratio transmits unevenly across the supply chain. First, polyester plants face growing inventory pressure. A ratio below 30% means products are shifting from "in transit" to "in storage." If this persists for several days, plants may be forced to balance supply and demand through maintenance shutdowns or price cuts, undermining the current price support logic.
Second, for downstream weavers and traders, a low sales ratio often signals that a price correction window is opening. But with polymerization costs still high, the room for correction may be limited. This pattern of "unable to fall deeply, unable to rise strongly" means buyers must time their stockpiling more precisely — stocking up too early risks high costs, while delaying too much may miss the low-price window.
Notably, there are regional and product-type differences in sales ratios. Some enterprises maintained ratios of 70% to 90%, indicating the market is not entirely dormant but holds structural opportunities. For example, differentiated products, fine-denier or functional filaments may show stronger demand resilience than conventional grades. For foreign trade companies, currency fluctuations and changes in shipping costs are also influencing their procurement pace, further destabilizing the sales ratio.