Polyester Filament Sales Slump: The Standoff Between High Polymer Costs and Downstream Resistance

On September 3, the polyester filament market received a cold shower: the average sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises stood at only 25.8%, down sharply by 13.3 percentage points from the previous trading day. What does this figure mean? Simply put, for every 100 tons of polyester filament produced that day, only about 26 tons were sold, with the rest adding to inventory pressure.

Event Background

The sales-to-production ratio is a barometer of real market demand. A ratio of 25.8% is historically low, and the divergence among enterprises was extreme—ranging from 0% to 90%, with most companies concentrated between 10% and 30%. This polarization suggests that weak demand is not an isolated issue but a systemic contraction in downstream purchasing willingness.

Notably, while the sales ratio plummeted, polymerization costs remained high. Upstream raw materials PTA and MEG maintained elevated prices, making production costs difficult to digest. Theoretically, high costs should prompt producers to raise prices to pass on pressure, but in reality, downstream users showed strong resistance to price hikes, leading to thin buying and a classic standoff between cost-push inflation and demand-side resistance.

Industry Impact

From a supply chain perspective, the lower sales ratio directly raises inventory levels among polyester filament producers. Longer inventory cycles mean increased capital occupation, pressuring small and medium manufacturers with tight cash flows. More critically, if this deadlock persists, some producers may be forced to cut production for maintenance to rebalance supply and demand, which would subsequently affect procurement of upstream materials like polyester chips and PTA.

For downstream weaving enterprises, the current price deadlock carries hidden risks. On the surface, resisting price hikes can delay cost pressure, but if upstream players suddenly offer discounts to clear inventories, traders who stocked up at high prices will face mark-to-market losses. Conversely, if costs continue to rise, delaying purchases might mean missing relatively low points. This uncertainty keeps both buyers and sellers on the sidelines, further exacerbating the sluggish sales ratio.

Looking at regional industrial clusters, major polyester filament capacity is concentrated in Tongxiang and Xiaoshan in Zhejiang, and Shengze in Jiangsu. Weaving enterprises in these areas directly feel raw material price fluctuations. The current low sales ratio indicates that raw material procurement in these clusters is slowing, which may later transmit to fabric price and delivery schedule adjustments, compressing the window for foreign trade order quotations.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Avoid chasing price increases or panic buying in the short term. Closely monitor polymerization cost trends (PTA, MEG). If costs ease, wait for a pullback to replenish; if costs remain firm, place small batch orders to secure partial needs. - Use sales ratio data to gauge sellers' bargaining power: when the ratio stays below 30% for consecutive days, manufacturers may offer implicit discounts or extended payment terms—negotiate better conditions accordingly.

For Foreign Trade Companies - Include price adjustment clauses in quotations to avoid losses from raw material volatility; update quotes on a weekly basis. - Monitor production and inventory changes in Shengze and Xiaoshan. If production cuts expand, secure greige fabric and fabric capacity in advance to avoid delivery delays.