On September 2, the polyester filament market presented a set of data worth pondering: the average sales-to-output ratio of sampled enterprises was only 39.1%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous trading day, while most producers raised quotations on the same day. A sales ratio below 40% indicates that the willingness of weaving mills to pick up goods has fallen to a low level within the year, yet polyester plants still chose to hold prices against the trend—this reflects a direct collision between cost support and weak demand, and a contest for pricing power between upstream and downstream.
Signals Behind the Data
The 39.1% ratio is not an isolated number. Looking at the data from 24 sampled enterprises, the distribution is extremely uneven: the highest reached 310%, the lowest was 0%, and more than 60% of enterprises had a ratio below 30%. This divergence indicates that the market is not entirely shrinking; rather, a few enterprises achieved concentrated shipments through pricing or customer loyalty, while most fell into the dilemma of "quotation leads to lost orders."
More critically, the ratio continued to decline by 0.7 percentage points from the previous trading day, marking a multi-day weakening trend. This contrasts sharply with the "majority of manufacturers raising quotations." Under normal circumstances, price increases are often accompanied by higher sales volumes, but the current divergence between volume and price can only be explained by factories passively following cost-driven increases while demand responds with a wait-and-see attitude.
It is worth noting that some local users made small replenishment purchases, but overall transactions were sluggish. Replenishers were mostly rigid-demand buyers making small purchases at lower prices, while the majority chose to wait for clearer price direction. This "small trials, large waiting" mentality precisely indicates a lack of consensus on future price trends.
Upstream-Downstream Bargaining and Price Trends
The price game in polyester filament is essentially a tug-of-war between cost and demand. If upstream raw material prices remain high, the profit margins of polyester plants are compressed, making price support a necessary choice to curb losses. However, downstream weaving enterprises face their own product inventory pressure and insufficient terminal orders, limiting their acceptance of high-priced raw materials.
From an industrial transmission perspective, the current low sales-to-output ratio implies that finished product inventories at polyester plants are accumulating. Once inventory pressure exceeds a critical point, factories may be forced to shift from "stable prices with hidden discounts" to "explicit price cuts to promote sales," leading to a downward shift in the price center. Conversely, if raw material costs continue to strengthen, factories may also reduce production to balance supply and demand, thereby supporting prices.
For buyers, the 39.1% ratio is a warning sign: the market is not in a one-sided rally, and the sustainability of price increases is questionable. For factories, a low sales ratio means that bargaining power is shifting toward buyers, and if inventories are not effectively reduced, subsequent operational pressure will increase.
Structural Differences Across Regions and Varieties
Despite the overall low sales ratio, the extreme value of 310% in the data suggests structural highlights in the market. Such high-ratio enterprises often concentrate on specific specifications or differentiated products, supported by long-term orders or export order dividends. In contrast, low-ratio enterprises are mostly concentrated in conventional varieties, facing intense homogeneous competition and high price elasticity.
From an industrial belt perspective, the operating rates of weaving clusters such as Shengze and Changxing directly determine the procurement pace of polyester filament. Currently, terminal garment orders are entering a transition period between peak and off-season. The domestic market performance is mediocre, and foreign trade orders are subject to uncertainties from shipping and exchange rates, leading to cautious raw material stocking intentions among weaving mills.
This structural divergence implies that the market may not see a uniform rise or fall. Instead, price trends between differentiated and conventional varieties are likely to further diverge. For conventional varieties, the risk of price wars rises; for high-value-added varieties, there remains room for bargaining.
Short-Term Outlook and Operational Strategies
Considering the current sales-to-output ratio, inventory accumulation speed, and raw material cost trends, polyester filament prices are likely to remain rangebound in the short term: factories' price support intentions and downstream wait-and-see sentiment will balance each other, with prices fluctuating narrowly. However, if the sales ratio remains below 40% for a week, destocking pressure will force prices to loosen, potentially triggering a round of catch-up declines.
For buyers, it is advisable not to chase highs at this moment, nor to remain completely empty. A batch replenishment strategy is recommended—gradually building inventory during price pullbacks to avoid being passively caught by sudden raw material price surges. For foreign trade enterprises, exchange rate fluctuations and shipping costs remain key variables affecting order profitability. It is recommended to pay attention to forward exchange hedging and logistics cost control, while signing partial long-term agreements with upstream factories to lock in costs.