On September 4, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises dropped to 21.0%, a sharp decline of 4.8 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure implies that nearly 80% of the day's output failed to find buyers, and inventory pressure is now transmitting upward along the polyester industry chain. When end demand cannot absorb existing capacity, price cuts may become a passive choice for some enterprises in the coming weeks.
Data Signals Behind the Sales Ratio
Looking at the distribution among sample enterprises, the ratios show a typical polarization: some achieved 40% sales, while others recorded zero, with most hovering between 10% and 20%. This dispersion reflects differences in customer structure and pricing strategies among enterprises of varying sizes, but the overall low average is enough to warn the market that polyester filament is facing a temporary supply surplus.
Notably, the downstream buyers' resistance to high prices is not an isolated phenomenon. With raw material costs remaining elevated, weaving enterprises' profit margins are continuously squeezed, making them more cautious in purchasing polyester filament. Purchases are limited to essential needs, indicating that speculative stockpiling demand has nearly vanished, significantly reducing market liquidity. This tug-of-war between cost-push price increases and demand-side wait-and-see is the core contradiction in today's chemical fiber market.
Chain Reactions from Inventory Accumulation and Cost Game
The persistently low sales ratio will directly push up finished goods inventories at polyester plants. According to industry experience, when the sales ratio remains below 30% for several consecutive days, inventory days will increase by 2-3 days per week, potentially reaching warning levels within two weeks. Once inventory pressure exceeds a critical point, factories will be forced to cut prices or conduct maintenance to adjust supply-demand balance, which in turn weakens support for raw material prices, creating a negative feedback loop.
For upstream PX and PTA, the weak demand for polyester filament means cooling procurement enthusiasm and limited upward price space. Although fluctuations in international oil prices can still cause periodic cost disruptions, price increases lacking demand support are often unsustainable. Profit distribution across the chain will become more uneven: upstream raw material suppliers can maintain some pricing power, while midstream polyester plants face a squeeze from both ends.
From a broader perspective, this data is also a lagging reflection of weak terminal demand in the textile and apparel sector. Although autumn/winter fabric orders have been gradually placed, they are mostly small and urgent, lacking large-scale centralized procurement. Brands and traders hold divergent views on future price trends, further delaying purchasing decisions.
Structural Divergence by Region and Product Type
Regionally, the performance of sample enterprises in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang polyester clusters is largely consistent with the national average, but differences exist among filament types. Conventional FDY and POY sales ratios are generally lower than DTY, reflecting relatively better profit margins in the texturing segment and stronger purchasing willingness for DTY. This structural divergence suggests that despite overall weakness, there are still local bright spots, and enterprises should pay attention to profit rebalancing opportunities among product types.
Moreover, fluctuations in sales ratios are also influenced by seasonal factors. Early September typically marks the start of the traditional 'golden September and silver October' period, but this year's start is clearly weaker. Some weaving enterprises report that new orders have fallen by about 20% year-on-year, with operating rates around 70%, naturally leading to inventory digestion rather than aggressive raw material purchases.
Outlook and Operational Strategies
In the short term, the polyester filament market is likely to continue its weak consolidation pattern. If the sales ratio fails to recover above 30% next week, some plants may take the lead in launching promotional policies, and the price center may face downward risk. However, it is important to note that raw material cost support still exists, limiting the depth of declines; the market is more likely to experience a gradual decline rather than a sharp drop.
In the medium to long term, whether the chemical fiber industry can emerge from its downturn depends on the actual pace of terminal demand recovery. The rebound of export orders, the implementation effects of domestic consumption stimulus policies, and the progress of autumn/winter apparel destocking are all key variables to monitor closely. During this waiting period, cash flow management capabilities across the chain will be more important than simple price games.