Polyester Filament Imbalance: A Cold Look at the First Trading Day of September

The polyester filament market delivered a mixed report card on the first full trading day of September. According to industry public data, the average production-sales ratio of sample enterprises was only 39.1%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure not only falls far below the industry's usual 80% prosperity line but also reflects the delicate game between upstream and downstream in the early stage of the 'golden September.'

The temperature behind the data

A production-sales ratio below 40% means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament produced, only about 39 tons were absorbed by the market. The data from sample enterprises shows sharp divergence: some companies reported a ratio as high as 310%, while as many as 20% recorded zero transactions. Such extreme polarization is not a signal of comprehensive demand recovery but is more likely a statistical illusion caused by low-price inventory clearance or concentrated purchases by large customers.

Notably, most manufacturers raised quotations that day, but the increase in transaction prices varied significantly. The coexistence of price hikes and low sales indicates strong cost-push intentions but weak demand-side absorption. Rising polyester raw material prices provide cost support for polyester filament, yet downstream weaving enterprises appear unconvinced—only local users made small replenishments, while the majority stayed on the sidelines, leading to sluggish market transactions.

Chain reactions in industrial transmission

A persistently low production-sales ratio will directly squeeze the cash flow of polyester plants. As a core intermediate in the polyester chain, the sales status of polyester filament quickly transmits upstream to PTA, MEG, and even crude oil. If low sales persist, factory inventories will gradually accumulate, and even with firm cost support, factories may be forced to cut prices to promote sales, forming a profit squeeze pattern of 'rising costs, falling product prices.'

For downstream weaving enterprises, the current wait-and-see sentiment is actually a rational choice. Unclear raw material price trends, coupled with insufficient orders, make hoarding inventories risky and capital-intensive. Operating rate data from major weaving clusters such as Shengze and Changxing shows that end-demand recovery still needs time, contrasting sharply with the high operating rates in the chemical fiber sector, further confirming the existence of a phased supply-demand mismatch.

Short-term outlook and strategies

Historically, September usually marks the start of the traditional peak season for the textile industry, but this year's start has been notably slow. The persistent low production-sales ratio of polyester filament may imply that the 'golden September' this year will be less brilliant. However, cost-side support remains significant—if crude oil and PTA prices maintain strength, the downside space for polyester filament will be limited. The market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, with price centers likely to fluctuate within the current range.

For buyers - Procure in batches as needed to avoid large one-time stockpiles and mitigate price fluctuation risks. - Pay close attention to PTA trends and mainstream factory sales data as timing references for orders. - Sign short-term flexible contracts with suppliers to lock in some forward prices and hedge against upside risks.

For factories - Flexibly adjust operating rates based on your own production-sales situation to avoid excessive inventory accumulation. - Strengthen product differentiation and increase the proportion of high-value-added varieties to reduce homogeneous competition. - Closely monitor downstream weaving operating rates and prepare in advance for peak-season orders.