The thermometer of the polyester filament market plunged to freezing point on September 3: the average sales-to-output ratio of sample enterprises was only 25.8%, a sharp drop of 13.3 percentage points from the previous trading day's closing data. This figure not only reflects the extremely sluggish buying interest of the day but also signals a delicate game between the upstream and downstream of the chemical fiber industry chain—costs continue to rise while demand responds with silence.
Cost Pass-Through Failure: High Polymer Costs Meet Resistance
The distribution of the day's sales data is quite telling: a wide fluctuation from 0% to 90% shows a severe divergence in order intake among enterprises, but most companies hovered in the low range of 20% to 30%, with some even recording zero sales. This near-frozen transaction situation contrasts sharply with the persistently high polymer costs during the same period. Theoretically, cost increases should pass through smoothly to downstream users, but the actual feedback shows that after polyester filament manufacturers raised prices, downstream resistance did not diminish at all.
This failure of cost pass-through essentially reflects an imbalance in profit distribution across the current industry chain. High polymer costs mean upstream raw material suppliers hold pricing power, while polyester filament manufacturers attempting to shift pressure downstream encounter soft resistance from end demand. Downstream weaving enterprises do not lack rigid demand; instead, during rapid price upswings, they choose to buy time by reducing purchase frequency and digesting existing inventories, waiting for price corrections.
Industrial Belt Response: From Sluggish Buying to Inventory Strategy Adjustments
The low sales-to-output ratio is not an isolated phenomenon; it often appears ahead of price adjustments as a direct signal of shifting market sentiment. For textile industry clusters such as Shengze and Keqiao, such data implies that weaving enterprises are extending their raw material replenishment cycles, reducing spot purchases, and adopting a wait-and-see stance. When the sales-to-output ratio of polyester filament manufacturers consistently falls below the 50% threshold, inventory pressure will accumulate, potentially forcing manufacturers to adjust pricing strategies in subsequent trading days.
Historically, a sales-to-output ratio below 30% usually indicates short-term price pressure. Even with high polymer costs, manufacturers find it difficult to maintain price increases during a demand vacuum. This suggests that the actual transaction center for polyester filament may loosen in the coming trading days, and downstream users are waiting for this window to restock. For foreign trade enterprises, this price negotiation window is precisely the key moment to lock in costs for forward orders.