On September 2, the polyester filament market presented a set of numbers worth attention: the average sales-to-output ratio of sampled enterprises stood at only 39.1%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means the industry shipped less than 40% of its capacity, yet most manufacturers chose to raise quotes. The divergence between price and volume is so obvious that the market has not seen panic selling but rather a tacit atmosphere of wait-and-see.
What the Sales Data Reveals About Real Demand
According to public sales data, performance among enterprises varied sharply: one firm recorded a ratio of 310%, while several others saw zero sales. This extreme divergence suggests that the so-called sluggish market is not monolithic—a few companies, thanks to product mix or customer loyalty, still attract concentrated orders, while most fall into neglect. Weighted average across all samples, the 39.1% ratio has remained below the boom-bust line, reflecting insufficient operating willingness in downstream weaving.
More intriguing is the direction of the decline, though small. Combined with the fact that quotes have risen but transaction centers show obvious differences, it is clear that demand has not vanished but is suppressed by high prices. Small replenishment by some users indicates rigid demand remains, but most users are standing aside, waiting for prices to correct or for clearer signals.
Why Price Hikes Struggle to Land
Manufacturers insisting on price hikes despite low sales ratios seems counterintuitive, but it is a game between cost logic and inventory pressure. If upstream raw material prices remain high, producers face losses; raising prices is an inevitable choice to pass on costs. However, downstream acceptance is limited, causing the actual transaction price to rise far less than the quoted price, creating a clear gap.
This “quotes up, transactions hard” situation has a notable transmission effect on industrial clusters. Weaving centers like Shengze and Changxing see their operating rates directly affected by raw material costs. If polyester filament prices stay high while grey fabric orders are insufficient, weaving mills will be forced to cut production or delay restocking, which in turn lowers chemical fiber enterprises’ sales ratios, forming a negative feedback loop.
When Will the Stalemate Break?
The core contradiction lies in the upstream wanting to protect profits and the downstream wanting to control costs, with both sides waiting for the other to give in first. Historically, such deadlocks require an external variable to break—either a loosening in raw material prices or a concentrated release of terminal garment orders. But for now, there are no signs of a unilateral breakthrough in the short term.
For foreign trade enterprises, exchange rate fluctuations and shipping uncertainties make long-term fixed-price contracts more cautious. Domestic buyers, on the other hand, focus on restocking nodes near month-end settlement. The real determinant of market direction remains the recovery pace of terminal consumption. If pre-National Day stocking begins, the sales ratio could rebound quickly; otherwise, price stalemate may extend to mid-month.