On September 1, the polyester filament market experienced a classic sentiment rollercoaster. The average sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises plummeted to 39.8% from 82.8% the previous trading day, a drop of 43 percentage points, while just hours earlier, some manufacturers had reported ratios as high as 300%-400%. This dramatic data reversal reveals not simple demand fluctuation, but demand exhaustion driven by price hike expectations followed by market cooling.
Event Background: Abnormal Fluctuations in Sales-to-Production Data
The sales-to-production ratio is a core indicator of polyester filament market health, and its sharp decline typically signals a contraction in downstream purchasing willingness. On September 1, the distribution of ratios across sample enterprises was highly uneven, with most firms stuck at 10%-40%, only a few exceeding 60%, and one reaching 150%. This divergence suggests not a broad market contraction but a structural adjustment—some enterprises lost orders due to excessive price hikes, while others maintained shipments due to relatively moderate pricing.
Notably, the surge in sales at the previous session's tail was not driven by natural demand growth. Some manufacturers promoted sales aggressively before raising prices, prompting downstream users to lock in orders early to avoid higher costs, thereby exhausting future demand. Such "panic buying" is not uncommon in the chemical fiber industry, but its scale and speed this time exceeded normal patterns, reflecting high market sensitivity to price trends.
Industry Impact: The Game Between Price Hike Expectations and Downstream Resistance
After most models' prices were raised, downstream users' resistance quickly intensified. This is not simply a matter of price acceptance but a struggle over profit distribution along the supply chain. Price fluctuations in upstream raw materials directly transmit to midstream polyester plants, while downstream weaving enterprises face difficulty passing on cost pressures to end products. When price increases exceed downstream affordability, a decline in the sales-to-production ratio becomes inevitable.
Historically, a ratio below 40% usually signals limited upward price momentum in the short term. If the ratio remains low for several consecutive days, manufacturers may be forced to cut prices to stimulate demand, squeezing their profit margins. Conversely, if downstream users re-enter the market after digesting inventory, a new restocking cycle may emerge. For buyers, a wait-and-see approach at this point may be wiser than chasing price increases, but they must remain alert to the possibility of collective price support by manufacturers.
This event also highlights a deep structural issue in the chemical fiber industry: information asymmetry and herding behavior amplify market volatility. Some manufacturers release positive news before raising prices to induce concentrated downstream purchasing, but real demand does not grow correspondingly. This "pulsed" production-sales model increases supply chain uncertainty and challenges the production scheduling of weaving enterprises.