The stalemate in the polyester filament market was confirmed again on August 28 by data: the average sales-to-output ratio of sample enterprises was only 34.7%, up 5.3 percentage points from the previous trading day, yet downstream resistance to high prices remained unchanged. Inquiries were sluggish, transactions were light, and the slight rebound in the sales ratio appears more like a brief respite in a tug-of-war than a signal of trend reversal.
Divergent Sales Data: Surface Recovery vs. Underlying Weakness
According to public sample data, enterprise performance was highly uneven on that day. Among the 25 surveyed companies, the sales-to-output ratio ranged from 0% to 500%, showing a clear polarization. Most enterprises reported ratios between 20% and 30%, reflecting persistent weak demand; the exceptional 500% ratio at one firm likely resulted from concentrated delivery of earlier orders or a low-price promotion, lacking universality. Such drastic fluctuations indicate that the market lacks stable demand support, and competition among enterprises is shifting from price wars to order grabbing.
A persistently low sales-to-output ratio implies rising inventories. For an industry like polyester filament, which requires continuous production, the cost of reducing output or shutting down is far higher than in downstream textile sectors. Therefore, factories tend to maintain operating rates and cut prices to clear stock. However, downstream users' "resistance to high prices" is not purely price sensitivity but reflects a lack of confidence in future price trends—they fear that buying now could turn them into "bag holders," so they prefer to lower operating rates or consume existing inventories rather than restock at high prices.
Cost Transmission and Purchasing Psychology: The Root of the Game
The upstream raw materials for polyester filament are PTA and MEG, whose price fluctuations directly impact the cost line. However, data from August 28 shows that the cost side did not provide strong support for polyester filament prices; instead, the price transmission mechanism was blocked due to weak downstream demand. Factories attempt to shift cost pressure downstream, but weaving enterprises refuse to accept price increases because of insufficient terminal orders. This "squeezed from both ends" pattern leaves polyester filament prices in a dilemma: unable to rise or fall.
From a purchasing psychology perspective, downstream users generally adopt a "buy-as-needed" strategy to avoid inventory depreciation risks. This mindset is common during industry downturns, but it also exacerbates market volatility—if prices show signs of loosening, buyers may collectively wait and see, driving the sales ratio even lower; conversely, a sharp rise in costs could trigger panic restocking. Therefore, the current 34.7% sales ratio is not merely a reflection of supply-demand dynamics but also the outcome of market expectation games.
Industry Impact: Weaving Enterprises' "Wait-and-See" Attitude and Foreign Trade's "Short-Fast" Orders
The downturn in polyester filament sales directly transmits to downstream weaving enterprises. Major industrial clusters such as Shengze and Changxing have seen loosening in water-jet loom operating rates, with some small and medium-sized weaving mills choosing staggered production or reducing shifts to cope with raw material price uncertainty. This "wait-and-see" attitude leads to a lack of new orders in the grey fabric market, making fabric traders cautious, and the entire chain falls into a negative feedback loop: raw material prices rise—grey fabric prices don't—orders remain on hold.
For foreign trade-oriented textile enterprises, exchange rate fluctuations and shipping cost changes are currently more concerning than raw material prices. The stalemate in polyester filament prices means relatively stable cost accounting for export orders, but customers continue to pressure prices. Some foreign trade companies report that third-quarter orders from Europe and the US are mostly short- and urgent-term, with significantly shortened procurement cycles. This requires them to be more flexible in raw material procurement to avoid capital occupation due to inventory buildup.