The thermometer of the polyester filament market is stuck at 23.5%. On September 7, the average sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises rose 2.5 percentage points from the previous trading day, but the market did not heat up—downstream resistance to high prices remained strong, and the sluggish transaction atmosphere persisted. This data paints not a recovery signal but a brief respite in a standoff.
Background
What does a 23.5% sales-to-production ratio mean? In the chemical fiber industry, a figure consistently below 30% is regarded as weak demand. On that day, the ratio among sample enterprises ranged from 0% to 130%, but most clustered in the 10%-30% band, with only a few reaching 130%. This extreme divergence indicates that the market is not uniformly recovering; rather, it is driven by sporadic orders, which cannot form a trend.
Polyester filament prices consolidated horizontally. Upstream factories attempted to hold prices firm, but downstream weaving enterprises clearly resisted. This resistance is not groundless—terminal demand for apparel and home textiles is recovering slowly, gray fabric inventories are high, and weavers face tight cash flows, making them highly sensitive to raw material price hikes. Once polyester filament quotes rise, buyers prefer to cut production or postpone restocking rather than bear the cost pass-through risk.
Industry Impact
The slight uptick in the sales ratio may be statistical noise. From the industry chain perspective, upstream PTA and MEG prices have been fluctuating narrowly recently, offering limited cost support, leaving polyester filament factories without strong grounds for price increases. On the demand side, Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving loom operating rates remain around 70%, but new orders are mostly short-cycle and small-volume, sustaining just-in-time procurement. Under this supply-demand game, polyester filament prices are likely to remain range-bound in the short term, with limited upside or downside.
For buyers, chasing prices now is unwise. A low sales ratio implies weakened bargaining power for factories, leaving room for concessions. For factories, however, low ratios directly squeeze cash flow; if sustained for weeks, some small and medium plants may be forced to cut production or even halt, which could underpin prices later. Foreign trade enterprises must watch exchange rate fluctuations and freight cost increases that erode export profits, especially when domestic demand is weak—export order stability becomes crucial.
Notably, the sales ratio data lags reality. The sample coverage is limited, and single-day figures are subject to random factors like weather or logistics, so over-interpreting daily changes is unwise. The industry should focus on weekly cumulative ratios and inventory days—if the ratio stays below 30% for another week, inventory pressure will force factories to cut prices; otherwise, a new round of price hikes may brew.