On September 3, trading in the polyester filament market suddenly cooled, with the average sales-to-production ratio among sample enterprises falling to just 25.8%, a sharp drop of 13.3 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure indicates that nearly 74% of production capacity failed to translate into actual orders, reflecting extremely weak market buying. More notably, despite persistently high polymerization costs prompting producers to attempt price hikes, downstream users showed strong resistance, leaving the market in a price standoff.
The Supply-Demand Reality Behind the Data
A sales-to-production ratio below 30% is not an isolated event. The detailed data from that day shows ratios ranging from 0% to 90%, with more than half of the enterprises reporting zero or low (10%-20%) sales, while only a few achieved over 70%. This extreme divergence suggests that demand is not universally weak but highly concentrated among a few suppliers with cost or quality advantages.
As a core intermediate in the polyester chain, the sales ratio of polyester filament directly reflects the operating willingness of downstream weaving and texturizing sectors. When the ratio remains below the breakeven point (typically considered above 60% for stable inventory), upstream inventory pressure accumulates. Combined with recent high operating rates at polyester plants, the hidden inventory risk should not be underestimated.
Why Cost Pass-Through Fails
High polymerization costs, mainly from PTA and MEG, theoretically support polyester filament prices. However, cost-push price increases are struggling against downstream resistance. The core reason lies in insufficient end-demand support—both the recovery pace of domestic apparel consumption and the sustainability of overseas orders fail to provide adequate profit buffers for midstream processing.
When upstream raw material prices rise while downstream product prices cannot follow, processing margins at polyester plants are squeezed from both sides. This combination of high costs and low sales often signals that the industry may enter a phase of voluntary production cuts. Historical experience shows that if the sales ratio remains below 30% for several consecutive days, plants are likely to adjust supply through production reductions or maintenance rather than continue to bear rising inventories.
Transmission and Impact on Industrial Clusters
The main polyester filament production capacity is concentrated in industrial hubs such as Tongxiang and Xiaoshan in Zhejiang, and Shengze in Jiangsu. The sharp drop in sales first impacts the production scheduling of polyester plants in these areas, subsequently affecting the raw material purchasing rhythm of weaving enterprises. For weaving mills in places like Shengze, a window for lower raw material prices may be opening, but they should be cautious of potential supply tightening later due to upstream production cuts.
On the foreign trade front, weak demand in Europe and the US, coupled with exchange rate fluctuations, is driving textile and apparel export orders toward a trend of smaller and shorter orders. This change undermines the procurement stability of bulk raw materials like polyester filament, exacerbating volatility in sales ratios. For chemical fiber enterprises dependent on exports, it is now more crucial to monitor overseas inventory cycles rather than blindly follow price hikes.