The single-day sales-to-production ratio plunged by 43 percentage points, and the polyester filament market staged a dramatic 'surge and chill' at the start of September. On September 1, the average ratio among sample enterprises was only 39.8%, while some manufacturers had seen ratios of 300%-400% at the previous day's close. This contrast reveals not just emotional swings, but a deep game of price negotiation between upstream and downstream.
Background
The sales-to-production ratio, which compares daily sales volume with output, directly reflects the pace of demand absorption. On September 1, most sample enterprises recorded ratios between 15% and 40%, with a few as low as 10%, and only a handful reaching above 80%, with a maximum of 150%. The previous day's tail-end surge, driven by some manufacturers, had pushed ratios to 300%-400%, prompting price hikes across most specifications the next day.
After the price increases, downstream resistance quickly escalated, and market inquiry sentiment cooled noticeably. In major production clusters in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Fujian, enterprises generally reported fewer inquiry calls, and actual transactions became more cautious. This pattern of 'price hike – resistance – volume contraction' is not unfamiliar in the chemical fiber market, but the speed of this adjustment warrants attention.
Industry Impact
The immediate consequence of the plunge in the sales-to-production ratio is the re-accumulation of inventory. Part of the destocking gains from the earlier surge may be offset, and if low-price promotions fail to sustain, factory capital pressure will rise. For polyester plants, this means that production cuts or promotional discounts may be decided sooner rather than waiting for the traditional peak season.
For downstream weaving enterprises, the resistance to price hikes reflects insufficient order support. End-user demand from apparel and home textiles has not yet formed a strong pull, prompting weavers to adopt a more short-term procurement approach, replenishing only for immediate needs. This mindset, in turn, exacerbates sales difficulties for filament producers, creating a negative feedback loop.
On the cost side, if PTA and MEG prices remain stable, profit margins for polyester filament are relatively controllable. However, if sales continue to languish, producers may be forced to concede on price, compressing processing spreads. For foreign trade, overseas orders are affected by shipping and exchange rate factors, making procurement rhythms even less predictable. Short-term price stalemate may lead exporters to delay orders while they wait for clearer direction.