On September 1, the chemical fiber market took a dramatic turn: the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises fell to 39.8%, a sharp drop of 43 percentage points from the previous day. Behind this number lies a rapid shift in market sentiment from chasing gains to wait-and-see, signaling that the short-term supply-demand landscape is being repriced. Notably, tail-end trading the day before had boosted sales for some manufacturers, with individual enterprises reporting ratios as high as 300%-400%, fueling price hike expectations. However, after most models saw price increases today, downstream resistance intensified, and inquiry activity quickly cooled, with sales-to-production data showing a polarized distribution from 10% to 150%, reflecting significant differences in order-taking capabilities and customer structures among enterprises.
Market Sentiment and Price Negotiation
The sales-to-production ratio is one of the core indicators of chemical fiber market health. An average of 39.8% means sample enterprises sold less than 40% of their output that day, with inventory pressure building. Compared with the previous day's high ratios, this cliff-like decline does not reflect a real disappearance of demand but rather a temporary stalemate in price negotiation: upstream wants to leverage price hikes, while downstream refuses to pay for short-term volatility. Looking at specific data, the distribution was highly uneven: most enterprises were in the 15%-35% range, but some recorded 80%, 100%, or even 150%. This divergence indicates that the market is not uniformly cooling but is structurally divided—some enterprises maintain higher shipments due to prior orders or customer loyalty, while those relying on spot markets suffer first.
For downstream weaving enterprises, the confidence to resist price increases comes from inventory buffers. Early low-cost stockpiles have not yet been fully consumed, reducing the urgency for immediate purchases and giving buyers leverage to wait. On the polyester plant side, despite strong intentions to raise prices, actual transaction prices may soften given declining sales ratios, potentially leading to a tug-of-war in the market.
Supply-Demand Rebalancing and Chain Transmission
The essence of this price negotiation is different expectations of inventory cycles across the chain. Upstream PTA and MEG prices have fluctuated little recently, providing limited cost support, suggesting that the price hike is more sentiment-driven than cost-pushed. If downstream resistance persists, the hike lacks fundamental backing, and enterprises may be forced to cut prices to move goods. Historically, a sales ratio below 40% is often a warning sign of a market turning point. If the ratio remains low in the coming days, polyester plants may reduce production or offer promotions to alleviate inventory pressure, pulling down the price center of polyester filament. Conversely, if downstream returns during the restocking window and the ratio quickly recovers, this adjustment is just a brief episode.
For the textile chain, fluctuations in chemical fiber prices transmit through fabric and apparel stages. Currently, it is the traditional peak season for stockpiling ahead of September-October, but terminal orders have not shown significant growth, making downstream procurement more cautious. If this caution spreads, it may dampen seasonal stockpiling and further suppress chemical fiber prices.