Polyester Filament Sales-to-Output Ratio Falls Below 40%: A Cold Reflection on the Stalemate

The thermometer of the polyester filament market—the sales-to-output ratio—settled at 34.7% on August 28. Although this figure rebounded by 5.3 percentage points from the previous trading day, it still hovers below the 40% threshold. More notably, the extreme divergence in sample data, ranging from 0% to 500%, reveals not a simple demand recovery but a deep stalemate in price negotiations across the supply chain.

What the Data Truly Signals

Behind the 34.7% average lies a telling distribution: a large number of enterprises recorded ratios between 10% and 30%, some even at 0%, while a few reached as high as 500%. This stark contrast indicates structural divergence rather than an overall rebound. Enterprises that lowered prices may be capturing market share, while those holding out for higher prices are biding their time.

Downstream buyers' strong resistance to high prices is the core issue in this stalemate. When polyester filament prices remain relatively high without a surge in end-user demand from apparel and home textiles, weaving mills inevitably adopt conservative procurement strategies. They are unwilling to pay for expensive raw materials or risk accumulating finished goods inventory. This sentiment is directly reflected in sluggish inquiries and sparse transactions in the spot market.

Transmission Effects Across the Industry

The stalemate is not an isolated event. As an intermediate segment of the polyester chain, weak sales of polyester filament transmit along two paths. Upstream, inventory pressure on polyester plants may force production cuts or price reductions, affecting demand expectations for PTA and MEG. Downstream, once weaving mills deplete their raw material stocks and terminal orders remain weak, production cuts become highly probable.

From a regional perspective, the operating rates in key consumption areas such as Shengze and Changxing will serve as critical indicators of genuine demand recovery in the coming weeks. Currently, downstream buyers are adopting a 'hand-to-mouth' strategy, keeping raw material inventories low—both as a silent protest against high prices and as a defensive measure against future uncertainty.

It is worth noting that the rebound in the sales-to-output ratio may partly reflect promotional discounts by some enterprises aiming to meet monthly sales targets. While this approach temporarily boosts sales data, it further compresses industry profits and reinforces downstream expectations of price declines, potentially prolonging the stalemate.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Establish a price range warning mechanism: when polyester filament prices enter historical high zones, proactively reduce raw material inventory days to avoid costly stockpiling. - Monitor the divergence between sales-to-output ratio and inventory levels: if the ratio remains below 40% for several days while factory inventories continue to accumulate, anticipate price softening and consider postponing large purchases. - When signing long-term agreements with suppliers, include price adjustment clauses to partially transfer raw material price volatility risks and lock in processing margins.

For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Incorporate raw material price linkage mechanisms into export quotations to prevent domestic price fluctuations from eroding order profits. - Utilize futures or forward locking tools to hedge against polyester raw material price risks, especially for long-term contracts. - Monitor the interplay between RMB exchange rates and crude oil prices, building flexibility into cost calculations to enhance price competitiveness.