On September 4, the average sales-to-production ratio of sampled polyester filament enterprises stood at 21.0%, down 4.8 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament produced, only 21 tons found buyers—more than 70% of output remained in warehouses, awaiting an uncertain future.
Behind the Numbers
The 21.0% ratio is no coincidence. Data from sample enterprises show a wide dispersion, from 0% to 40%, with over half of the companies reporting ratios at or below 20%, and some even recording zero transactions. This divergence indicates that customer loyalty and product mix have already created significant gaps among enterprises.
More notably, this marks another decline after consecutive days of weakening sales-to-production ratios. As a core intermediate in the polyester chain, polyester filament's sales ratio directly reflects downstream weaving mills' purchasing intentions. When the ratio persistently stays below 30%, it typically signals that downstream players are actively destocking rather than passively waiting for lower raw material prices.
Downstream resistance to high prices is not unfounded. On the cost side, although PTA and ethylene glycol prices have fluctuated recently, they have not collapsed, keeping theoretical processing margins for polyester filament relatively high. However, end-user demand from apparel and home textiles has not expanded as expected, especially for export orders squeezed by exchange rates and shipping costs. Weaving mills, facing high raw material prices, can only purchase on a need-to basis, passing inventory pressure upstream.
Chain Reactions Across the Industry
The immediate consequence of low sales ratios is rising finished goods inventories at filament plants. According to public industry data, average inventory days at major producers have climbed above 20, with some specifications like POY and FDY exceeding one month. High inventories force factories to cut prices or offer promotions to relieve cash flow pressure, which in turn strengthens downstream wait-and-see attitudes, creating a negative feedback loop of "the more prices fall, the less buyers purchase."
This situation does not only affect polyester filament itself. As a mid-stream product, weak sales ratios transmit upward, suppressing demand for PTA and ethylene glycol, and influencing PX price expectations. In fact, recent polyester raw material markets have shown signs of "following declines but not rises," indicating that pricing power is shifting from upstream to downstream.
For weaving mills, low sales ratios mean greater bargaining power in procurement negotiations. Yet without substantial improvement in end demand, this "buyer's advantage" cannot translate into real profits, as fabric prices are equally suppressed by downstream apparel brands. The entire chain is stuck in a stalemate of "low profits, high inventories, weak demand."
From a regional perspective, weaving operating rates in major polyester filament consumption hubs like Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan have already declined slightly, with some small and medium enterprises opting for staggered production or temporary shutdowns. This is not merely a reflection of short-term order shortages but a proactive adjustment in an industry facing overcapacity. China Chemical Fiber Industry Association data indicate that new polyester filament capacity in 2026 still exceeds 2 million tons, while demand growth has slowed to below 5%, widening the supply-demand gap.
Diverging Price Expectations
Despite the discouraging sales ratio data, the market has not seen panic selling. Some leading enterprises have chosen to reduce output to support prices, with industry operating rates dropping from around 85% in early September to about 80%. This tacit self-discipline has worked several times in the past two years, helping the industry maintain price floors during off-seasons.
However, the sustainability of output cuts is questionable. If end demand fails to materialize during the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, cutbacks will intensify, and prices may face downward correction risks. Conversely, if demand surprises on the upside, downstream players with low inventories will be forced to restock, potentially driving a rapid price rebound. Therefore, order trends over the next two weeks will be the key variable determining Q4 market direction.
For foreign trade enterprises, exchange rate volatility and unpredictable shipping logistics make long-term contract negotiations more difficult. Some European clients have shortened order cycles from three months to one month to avoid price fluctuation risks. This trend toward shorter orders requires domestic suppliers to have more flexible production scheduling and faster response times, otherwise they risk losing share in price competition.
Practical Recommendations
For Purchasers - Leverage the current buyer's market to negotiate better settlement terms with suppliers, such as deferred payment or tiered pricing. - Monitor output cut announcements from leading producers; if industry operating rates fall below 75%, consider increasing safety stock to hedge against potential supply tightening.
For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Incorporate price adjustment clauses in quotations, linking order prices to raw material fluctuations to avoid bearing exchange rate and material risks unilaterally. - Develop high value-added products, such as differentiated functional polyester filaments, to avoid homogeneous competition in conventional grades and enhance pricing power.
This "cold" spell in the chemical fiber market is not a prelude to recession but an inevitable adjustment amid mismatched capacity and demand cycles. Enterprises that can navigate the cycle are not those who bet on the right direction but those who have planned ahead in inventory management and customer structure. TexCircle will continue to track sales-to-production ratio changes to provide first-hand decision-making references for the industry.