Sales-to-Production Ratio Falls Below 30%: Polyester Filament Market Seeks New Balance Between Cost and Demand

The thermometer of the polyester filament market plunged near freezing in early September. Public data from September 3 shows the average sales-to-production ratio of sampled enterprises fell to 25.8%, down 13.3 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons produced, fewer than 26 tons were actually sold, with inventory pressure building upstream along the supply chain.

Background

A ratio below 30% is rare in the recent chemical fiber market. The day's figures ranged widely from 0% to 90%, but most enterprises clustered between 10% and 30%, with only a few exceeding 50%. This divergence indicates that the market is not completely stalled but rather shows structural differences in demand across product types and customer segments.

Notably, the divergence between price and sales ratio is intensifying. High polymerization costs gave polyester filament producers confidence to raise prices, but downstream resistance did not ease; instead, it further dampened purchasing willingness. The weak buying atmosphere suggests that price hikes are more a passive response to costs than a result of demand recovery.

Industry Impact

The immediate consequence of the lower ratio is longer inventory turnover days and increased capital occupation for filament producers. For small and medium factories with tight cash flow, this pressure may force production cuts or price reductions, potentially breaking the current price deadlock. However, without a significant drop in polymerization costs, substantial price cuts are unlikely, leaving the market in a period of "high prices, low volume" standoff.

For downstream weaving enterprises, current raw material prices already exceed the tolerance of some orders. During the pre-season stocking period, excessively high costs will compress greige fabric margins and may lead to order postponements or cancellations. This negative feedback could further weaken demand for polyester filament, creating a cycle of rising costs, weak demand, low sales ratios, and higher inventories.

Looking at the transmission rhythm along the chain, polyester chips—the direct upstream of filament—will be a key indicator in the coming weeks. If polymerization costs ease due to crude oil or PX price corrections, filament producers may gain room to offer discounts, stimulating downstream restocking. Conversely, if costs remain firm, the sales ratio is likely to stay low, and industry operating rates may face downward adjustments.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Replenish as needed, avoiding bulk purchases during price standoffs to reduce inventory depreciation risk. - Monitor polymerization cost changes; if raw material prices show signs of easing, wait for a better purchasing window. - Negotiate more flexible payment terms with suppliers, such as deferred or split deliveries, to ease cash flow pressure.

For Exporters - Closely track exchange rate movements; when costs are high, lock in forward exchange rates to avoid conversion losses. - Confirm shipping schedules and logistics costs in advance to prevent additional storage expenses from delays. - Assess the profit margins of existing orders; if raw material increases exceed contract tolerance, communicate promptly with customers to adjust prices or share costs.