The September 7 sales data cast a cold shower on the polyester filament market: the average sales-to-output ratio of sampled enterprises was only 23.5%, up 2.5 percentage points from the previous trading day's close. What does this number mean? Simply put, for every 100 tons of polyester filament produced that day, only about 23.5 tons were absorbed by the market, indicating visible inventory pressure.
Weak Sales Ratio Reveals Demand Truth
A 23.5% sales ratio is notably low for the chemical fiber industry. Reviewing recent market conditions, polyester filament prices have moved sideways, downstream users continue to resist high prices, and trading is thin. Company-level data on that day ranged from 0% to 130%, showing extreme divergence—the 130% figure may reflect a temporary large order, while 0% means almost no transactions. This polarization highlights the randomness and caution in downstream procurement, not a systemic demand recovery.
Looking at the distribution, most enterprises had ratios between 10% and 30%, with only a few exceeding 40%. This indicates that downstream weaving and texturizing plants are purchasing raw materials on a need-only basis, with speculative stockpiling nearly absent. For upstream polyester plants, sales ratios persistently below 50% will force price concessions or production cuts, which will transmit pressure to PTA and MEG, creating a negative feedback loop.
Cost Game and Price Standoff
The sideways price of polyester filament is not driven by demand but by a tug-of-war between cost and demand. Upstream raw material prices remain relatively firm, squeezing polyester plants' profit margins, but downstream users have limited acceptance of high prices, leading to a situation where price increases are difficult and price cuts are reluctant. This standoff is particularly delicate before the traditional peak season in early September—if demand remains sluggish, plants may be forced to cut prices to destock, which will also pressure the raw material side.
Notably, the 2.5 percentage point increase in the sales ratio, though modest, suggests the market is not deteriorating unilaterally. Some enterprises may have attracted orders through price concessions or promotional strategies, but sustainability depends on real improvement in end-user orders. For textile enterprises, current raw material procurement should be based on actual needs to avoid inventory buildup from speculative buying.
Industrial Belt Reaction and Outlook
From an industrial belt perspective, changes in operating rates of polyester plants and weaving clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang will be key indicators. If sales ratios remain low, news of plant maintenance or load reduction may increase, potentially providing bottom support for prices. Conversely, if downstream orders release intensively before the peak season, sales ratios could quickly rebound above 60%, reversing market sentiment.
For buyers, the current price standoff is a negotiation window—they can leverage volume commitments to secure better settlement terms. For foreign trade enterprises, they need to be wary of exchange rate fluctuations and the lagged impact of raw material prices on export quotations.