21% — that was the average sales-to-output ratio of sampled polyester filament enterprises on September 4, down 4.8 percentage points from the previous trading day's close. What does this number mean? In simple terms, for every 100 tons of polyester filament produced that day, only 21 tons found buyers, leaving the remaining 79 tons as inventory. Downstream users' resistance to high raw material prices has not eased, purchases remain need-based, and market transactions have turned sluggish.
Event Background
Looking at the public sales data, the ratios varied widely among sampled enterprises: some reached a relatively active 40%, while others were completely stalled at 0%, with most hovering between 10% and 20%. This divergence is not accidental; it reflects differences in pricing power and order stability among polyester filament producers of varying scales and customer structures. Companies with long-term contract clients managed to maintain some shipments, while those relying on spot trades saw almost no activity.
Polyester filament is a key intermediate product in the textile chain, linking petrochemical raw materials upstream and weaving processes downstream. The continuous decline in its sales ratio directly affects demand expectations for PTA and MEG upstream, while also prompting downstream grey fabric and fabric enterprises to slow their raw material procurement pace. Industry public data shows that polyester plant inventories have been gradually building up, and some producers have begun adjusting supply through maintenance or output reduction to avoid further inventory expansion.
Industry Impact
The low sales ratio is a short-term result of price negotiation, but at a deeper level, it reflects an imbalance in profit distribution between upstream and downstream. High raw material costs support polyester filament prices at elevated levels, yet downstream weaving enterprises face difficulty raising their own product prices, limiting their ability to absorb expensive inputs. This 'squeezed from above, pressured from below' dynamic puts polyester plants in a dilemma: maintaining prices loses orders, while cutting prices compresses profit margins.
For buyers, the current market is not about 'no goods available' but 'prices are hard to negotiate.' Some plants may privately offer discounts under financial pressure, but mainstream quotes remain firm, causing transactions to stall. If this persists, it will force some small and medium polyester enterprises to cut prices first, triggering a round of price adjustments. For grey fabric and fabric producers, raw material costs are unlikely to fall significantly in the short term, so they must be more cautious in cost calculations when taking orders to avoid margin erosion.
From a broader perspective, the downturn in polyester filament sales also reflects weak terminal consumer demand. Domestic demand lacks growth drivers, while export orders remain unstable due to overseas inventory cycles and logistics issues. The textile chain is in the traditional 'golden September and silver October' peak season, but current sales data do not show the expected vigor. This reminds us that a 'peak season without peak' may become the new normal, and enterprises need to adjust expectations and adopt flexible strategies to cope with market fluctuations.