On September 3, the average sales-to-output ratio of sampled polyester filament enterprises plummeted to 25.8%, a sharp drop of 13.3 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament produced that day, fewer than 26 tons were absorbed by the market. With polymerization costs remaining high, producers attempted to raise prices, but downstream users responded with reluctance, leaving trading volumes nearly frozen.
Divergence Behind the Data
The published sales data show extreme divergence among enterprises, with the highest at 90% and the lowest at 0%, while most fell within the 10%-30% range. Such polarization is not accidental—enterprises with high ratios may hold earlier orders or differentiated products, whereas those with zero sales face inventory backlog risks. For buyers, this indicates that the market is not monolithic and there is still room for negotiation.
Persistently low sales-to-output ratios directly reflect weak end-user demand. The traditional peak season of "Golden September" in textiles has started poorly, with downstream weaving enterprises lacking orders and maintaining only essential purchases of raw materials. More critically, the cost transmission chain is obstructed: rising polymerization costs should push up polyester filament prices, but downstream affordability is limited, and price increases meet resistance, creating a pincer situation of "rising costs and weak demand."
The Game Between Cost and Demand
The main raw materials for polyester filament, PTA and ethylene glycol, remain at high levels due to international oil prices and supply-demand dynamics, keeping polymerization costs elevated. In theory, cost-push price increases are normal market behavior, but this time the increase has failed to transmit effectively downstream because terminal consumption is sluggish. Weaving enterprises themselves struggle to raise product prices, squeezing their profit margins and making them highly sensitive to raw material price hikes.
This deadlock pressures both upstream and downstream parts of the supply chain. For polyester filament manufacturers, low sales-to-output ratios mean slower inventory turnover and increased capital occupation. If the stalemate persists, it is not inconceivable that some manufacturers will choose to cut production to support prices. Historical experience shows that when the sales-to-output ratio remains below 30% for several consecutive days, industry-wide production cuts often follow.
Market Expectations and Operational Strategies
In the short term, polyester filament prices may maintain high-level volatility, but upward momentum is insufficient. Downstream resistance is unlikely to dissipate quickly, and the market needs time to digest high costs. In the medium term, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is not over; if terminal orders improve marginally, the sales-to-output ratio could recover. However, if demand continues to weaken, production cuts may become an industry-wide choice, potentially leading to price divergence.
For market participants, it is unwise to blindly chase price increases or panic-sell at this juncture. The price trend of polyester filament will depend more on changes in polymerization costs and the pace of terminal demand recovery. It is recommended to closely monitor international oil price fluctuations and downstream loom operating rates to gauge the true extent of demand recovery.