On September 1, the polyester filament market experienced a sharp sentiment reversal. Public data from China's chemical fiber industry showed that the average sales-to-production ratio of sampled enterprises stood at only 39.8%, down 43.0 percentage points from the previous trading day's close. Behind this figure lies a stark contrast: a brief boom in late-session sales on August 31, with ratios reaching 300%-400%, followed by a rapid decline in inquiries. Such volatile swings in the sales ratio often signal that the market is at a critical juncture, directly impacting procurement and pricing strategies across the supply chain.
Event Background
The immediate trigger was that some polyester filament producers, observing strong late-session sales on August 31, raised prices for most specifications on September 1. However, downstream users quickly resisted the hikes, dampening market inquiry sentiment and reducing transaction volumes. The disclosed data for that day show significant divergence among sampled enterprises: the lowest ratio was 10%, the highest 150%, with most firms ranging between 20% and 40%, and only a few maintaining ratios above 80%. This divergence indicates that the market is not experiencing a broad recovery but rather a pulse of demand for specific products or from certain buyers, insufficient to support an overall price uptrend.
From industry experience, a fluctuation of more than 30 percentage points in the daily sales ratio is an abnormal signal, often reflecting highly unstable expectations about future price movements. The failure of this price-hike attempt suggests that polyester filament prices lack strong demand-side support in the short term, limiting upward potential. For upstream polyester plants, inventory pressure may reaccumulate; for downstream weaving enterprises, a procurement window may have emerged, but they must remain cautious of potential price fluctuations.
Industry Impact
The ripple effects of the plunge in the sales ratio are noteworthy. First, for polyester filament producers, an average ratio of 39.8% means that over 60% of output has not been converted into immediate sales, leading to gradual inventory buildup. If the ratio fails to recover above 80% in the coming days, enterprises may resort to price cuts to destock, further suppressing market prices. Second, for downstream weavers and traders, the resistance to price hikes reflects their own lackluster order books, with raw material purchases driven by immediate needs rather than speculative stockpiling. This cautious sentiment emerging just before the traditional peak season suggests that this year's 'golden September and silver October' may fall short of expectations.
It is worth noting that the higher ratios of 100% and 150% in the data may be linked to differentiated products or long-term contract customers of specific enterprises, and do not represent the mainstream market. Therefore, industry participants should not be misled by individual high figures but focus on the overall trend. From a cost perspective, if polyester filament prices decline due to weak demand, the profit distribution across the polyester chain will be reshaped, potentially squeezing the pricing power of upstream PTA and MEG. For exporters, exchange rate fluctuations and international demand changes remain larger variables, but domestic sales ratio volatility directly affects cost calculations when accepting orders.