For the first time since August, the daily volume of reserve cotton sales has fallen below 10,000 tons. On September 8, China National Cotton Reserve Corporation planned to sell 8,009.7804 tons of central reserve cotton in 38 lots, a clear contraction from previous multi-ton daily offerings. For downstream textile mills, this is not just a supply change—it signals a policy shift from 'massive release to suppress prices' to 'precise control.'
Event Background
Reserve cotton sales have long served as a 'stabilizer' in the textile raw material market. This round of sales is scheduled in the window before the new cotton crop arrives, aiming to smooth price fluctuations during the transition. However, a daily volume of less than 10,000 tons, combined with a batch structure of 38 lots, indicates that the remaining reserve inventory is entering its late stage. According to industry public data, the cumulative transaction volume of reserve cotton in 2026 has maintained a high transaction rate, but the remaining sellable resources are increasingly limited.
Another notable detail is the tightened delivery deadline. The announcement explicitly requires winning bidders to pick up goods within 10 working days (inclusive) from the issuance of the delivery order. Overdue goods will be converted to commercial cotton storage, with all related responsibilities and costs borne by the buyer. This is significantly shorter than the previous 15 to 30 days, suggesting that the policy side aims to accelerate outbound logistics and avoid resource occupation, also implying that future releases may emphasize efficiency over simple volume.
Industry Impact
For textile enterprises, the contraction in reserve cotton sales directly alters raw material procurement expectations. Previously, the market generally believed that as long as reserve cotton continued to release in volume, domestic cotton prices would have limited upward room. But now, with declining release volumes and limited import quotas, supply-side uncertainty is rising. For enterprises producing mainly medium- and low-count yarns, cotton costs account for about 70% of production costs, so any fluctuation in raw materials quickly transmits to quotes.
Looking at warehouse distribution, this listing involves multiple inland warehouses, with both imported and domestic cotton. The cost advantage of imported cotton has narrowed recently due to RMB exchange rate fluctuations, while domestic cotton remains attractive in terms of quality consistency and delivery convenience. Buyers need to more carefully calculate delivery time and storage costs when bidding, because the 10-working-day constraint actually puts pressure on capital occupation and logistics scheduling upfront.
More profoundly, changes in the pace of reserve cotton sales may re-price the floor of domestic cotton prices. When the market no longer relies on expectations of 'unlimited supply,' the linkage between new crop opening prices and reserve cotton transaction prices will be stronger. Factors that were secondary in past years, such as weather speculation in Xinjiang cotton areas and ginner purchasing psychology, may be amplified this year. Textile companies that continue to use the old strategy of 'bid as you go, wait for the next batch if you miss' may face material shortages.