On September 7, the average sales-to-production ratio of sampled polyester filament enterprises stood at 23.5%, up 2.5 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure remains at a low level on the annual scale, indicating that less than a quarter of the day's production was converted into downstream orders. The low ratio is not an isolated case but a microcosm of the tug-of-war between costs and demand across the polyester supply chain.
Supply-Demand Reality Behind the Data
The sales-to-production ratio is the most direct window into the health of the polyester industry. An average of 23.5% conceals a wide disparity among sample enterprises, ranging from 0% to 130%. A 0% ratio means some factories received no orders that day, while 130% shows that a few are still fulfilling earlier orders. This extreme divergence suggests that demand has not vanished but is highly concentrated among suppliers with cost or quality advantages, while most enterprises are passively accumulating inventory amid sluggish transactions.
Polyester filament markets have been trading sideways for several consecutive days, with prices neither rising nor falling. The root cause lies in the mismatch of expectations between upstream and downstream. Upstream, PTA and MEG costs remain supported by crude oil fluctuations; downstream, weaving mills show growing resistance to high raw material prices and have slowed purchasing. This standoff—upstream trying to hold prices, downstream refusing to buy—keeps transaction volumes low, keeping the sales-to-production ratio depressed.
Industrial Transmission and Inventory Pressure
A low sales-to-production ratio directly pushes up industry inventory days. Based on current sales levels, social inventory of polyester filament is climbing toward over one month, with some enterprises' physical inventory nearing storage capacity limits. Accumulating inventory not only ties up capital but also increases the likelihood of year-end promotional price cuts—a window that patient buyers might want to wait for.
From a chain transmission perspective, weakness in polyester filament is beginning to pressure upstream raw materials. Expectations of production cuts at polyester plants are growing. If the sales-to-production ratio fails to return above 40% within a week, some units may opt for load reduction and maintenance, artificially shrinking supply to support prices. While effective in the short term, such passive adjustments could exacerbate upstream supply-demand imbalances, triggering a new round of chain reactions.
Regional and Category Divergence
Looking at the distribution of sample enterprises, sales data from traditional polyester clusters such as Xiaoshan and Tongxiang in Zhejiang and Shengze in Jiangsu show clear divergence. Enterprises around Shengze, dominated by water-jet looms, maintain rigid demand for polyester filament thanks to relatively stable fabric orders; those in Xiaoshan and Tongxiang, more reliant on export orders, are more cautious due to shipping costs and exchange rate fluctuations. This regional variance reminds market participants not to judge the whole by a single average.
By category, POY, FDY, and DTY also perform differently. POY benefits from draw-texturing mills' restocking, with a slightly higher sales-to-production ratio; FDY faces greater difficulty in transactions as knitting and warp-knitting users continue to press prices; DTY, as a deep-processed product, holds firmer prices, but high prices also suppress volumes. This divergence suggests that any future price adjustment is likely to be structural rather than comprehensive.
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - If inventory allows, consider delaying purchases for about a week to see if the sales-to-production ratio can break above 30%. If it remains low, a window for price concessions may open before month-end. - Prioritize suppliers with a sales-to-production ratio above 100%; such enterprises have full order books, ensuring better quality and delivery, avoiding inventory risks that come with low prices. - Monitor the price spread between POY and FDY. If the spread widens, consider substituting some FDY purchases with POY plus texturing to lower raw material costs.
For Exporters - Lock in forward exchange rates for existing orders and purchase raw materials in batches to avoid profit erosion from currency fluctuations or raw material price rebounds. - Include floating clauses in export quotations, adjusting prices if raw material costs fluctuate beyond a certain threshold, to hedge against price uncertainty during low sales-to-production periods. - Use the current sluggish market to negotiate more flexible payment terms with suppliers, such as extended credit periods or reduced down payment ratios, to improve cash flow.
The stalemate in the polyester filament market will not last forever. Each slight uptick in the sales-to-production ratio is a signal of tentative approach between supply and demand. For the industry, a true breakthrough may have to wait until inventory pressure forces upstream to concede, or downstream orders show a trend recovery. Until then, maintaining healthy cash flow and flexible purchasing rhythm is more pragmatic than betting on a one-way price move. The Texcircle editorial team will continue to track sales-to-production ratios and inventory data to provide decision-making references for all parties in the supply chain.