On September 3, the polyester filament market witnessed a rare signal: the average sales-to-output ratio of sample enterprises was only 25.8%, a sharp drop of 13.3 percentage points from the previous trading day. Behind this figure lies a fierce tug-of-war between persistently high polymerization costs and shrinking downstream purchasing willingness. When cost-push price hikes encounter silent demand, the chemical fiber chain is undergoing a subtle rebalancing.
Sales Data Anomalies: Structural Divergence amid Sluggishness
Looking at the day's sales data, performance varied significantly among enterprises: some achieved high ratios of 90% and 70%, while others recorded ice-cold zero transactions. This extreme divergence is not accidental but reflects differences in cost transmission and customer retention capabilities among polyester filament producers of varying sizes and product structures. Large integrated enterprises, leveraging self-supplied raw materials, managed to maintain relatively stable shipment rhythms; small and medium-sized chip-spinning enterprises, however, face the risk of cost inversion, forcing them to make difficult choices between maintaining prices and maintaining volumes.
Notably, the average ratio of 25.8% is already below the industry warning line. According to historical experience, when the sales-to-output ratio remains below 30% for consecutive days, social inventories of polyester filament will enter a rapid accumulation phase. If data fail to recover in the following days, inventory pressure may force some producers to offer discounts, breaking the current illusion of firm prices.
Cost Transmission and Price Game: Who Pays?
High polymerization costs are the direct driver behind the current price increases in polyester filament. Upstream PTA and ethylene glycol prices, influenced by crude oil fluctuations and tight supply, remain at high levels, compressing processing profits for polyester plants. To pass on cost pressure, polyester filament producers chose to raise prices simultaneously, but downstream weaving enterprises have limited acceptance. The resistance stems from weak terminal orders—fabric mills and traders generally report that fabric prices cannot rise in tandem, dampening their willingness to purchase raw materials.
This impeded price transmission along the chain is reshaping the profit distribution pattern. In the short term, polyester plants maintain apparent profitability through pricing power, but persistently low sales ratios indicate deteriorating actual cash flow. In the long run, if costs do not see a clear decline, the industry may face a new wave of production cuts or maintenance shutdowns, forcing an adjustment in supply-demand relations.
Regional Industrial Belts and Foreign Trade Transmission: What Impact?
Fluctuations in polyester filament sales data first transmit to weaving industrial belts represented by Shengze and Keqiao. The loom operating rates and raw material purchasing rhythms in these regions are highly linked; a declining sales ratio often signals sluggish subsequent orders. For foreign trade enterprises relying on exports, the combination of RMB exchange rate fluctuations and overseas inventory cycles further amplifies uncertainty in terminal demand. Currently, major overseas markets are showing weakened restocking momentum, with export orders dominated by short-term and urgent orders, which cannot support large-scale raw material stocking by weaving enterprises.
From the industrial transmission chain, the stalemate in chemical fiber raw material prices is seeping into the fabric segment. Fabric buyers are highly cautious, with some orders postponed or canceled, which in turn suppresses demand for polyester filament. If this negative feedback loop continues, it may lead to the failure of the 'golden September and silver October' peak season expectations at the end of Q3.