On September 8, the average sales-to-output ratio of sampled polyester filament makers hit 48.2%, a sharp rebound of 24.7 percentage points from the previous trading day. Yet the headline figure masks a wide dispersion among individual firms, with ratios ranging from 10% to 300%. Such disparity signals not a broad demand recovery but a structural divergence in price negotiations.
The Temperature Gap Behind the Data
Among the 24 sampled enterprises, some struggled at 10-20%, while others achieved 300%. This bipolar pattern suggests that downstream purchases were concentrated among a few suppliers offering price advantages or strong customer relationships. An average of 48.2% remains well below the 100% equilibrium line, implying that industry inventories are still building, albeit at a slower pace.
Producers generally held prices steady, but "steady" does not mean "firm." With no substantial improvement in demand, holding prices is more about avoiding a price war that would squeeze margins further. However, downstream buyers' bearish sentiment persists, and local negotiations have already loosened. A few makers sold above equilibrium, hinting that some have quietly offered discounts to secure orders. This "apparent stability with hidden cuts" reveals a deep disagreement over price expectations between upstream and downstream.
The Logic Behind the Price Tug-of-War
The current stalemate in the polyester filament market is essentially a tug-of-war between costs and demand. If raw material prices remain high, producers have limited room to cut prices. But weak demand from the textile sector cannot support price hikes. The short-term jump in the sales-to-output ratio is more likely a restocking response to temporarily low prices rather than a signal of a trend reversal. Once restocking ends, if demand does not improve, the ratio will likely fall again, and prices may face renewed downward pressure.
For buyers, a 48.2% ratio means the market remains buyer-dominated, leaving room for negotiation. However, the extreme dispersion warns that some producers may be near their cost lines; excessive price pressure could trigger production cuts, tightening supply later. For mills, a ratio below equilibrium will force output cuts or promotions, while the 300% outliers suggest that low-price strategies still work with certain customer segments.
Regional and Supply-Chain Transmission
Although the report did not specify regions, polyester filament capacity is concentrated in Zhejiang's Tongxiang, Shaoxing, and Jiangsu's Shengze. Inventory and operating-rate changes in these hubs will directly affect downstream weaving mills. If the ratio stays below equilibrium, production-cut expectations may firm up, stabilizing greige fabric prices and influencing demand for upstream PTA and MEG. Exporters should watch this chain: if upstream cuts output to defend prices, the window for locking in forward order costs may close quickly.