39.1% - that is the average sales-to-output ratio of sampled polyester filament enterprises on September 2, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous trading day. What does this figure mean? Simply put, more than 60% of the day's output failed to convert into actual sales, and inventory is passively accumulating. More notably, despite such sluggish transactions, most manufacturers raised their quotes against the trend, with divergent increases. The divergence between volume and price has led the market into a typical wait-and-see stalemate.
What the Sales Data Reveals
According to public industry data, the sales-to-output ratios among sampled enterprises varied dramatically on that day, ranging from as high as 310% to as low as 0%. A ratio of 310% suggests that a few enterprises received concentrated orders or delivered on previous contracts, while 0% indicates no transactions at all. This extreme divergence is not a sign of comprehensive demand recovery, but rather a statistical illusion magnified by localized replenishment. Most enterprises recorded ratios between 15% and 35%, reflecting that downstream weaving mills have trimmed their procurement to just-in-time replenishment, unwilling to build extra inventory under uncertain price expectations.
Price Game: Cost Support vs. Weak Demand
The core logic behind manufacturers raising quotes despite declining sales ratios lies on the cost side. Recently, upstream raw material prices have fluctuated, and the cost center of the polyester industry chain has moved up, theoretically supporting polyester filament prices. However, downstream buyers are not convinced. Most users retreated to the sidelines, with only a few making small replenishments, indicating insufficient support from end orders. Weaving mills themselves face inventory pressure from finished goods and have limited capacity to absorb higher raw material costs. This mismatch in price expectations between upstream and downstream has trapped the market in a cycle of "quote hikes - sluggish transactions - inventory accumulation." Once cost support weakens, the risk of price corrections will rise significantly.
Industry Impact: Inventory Transmission and Operating Rate Concerns
The consecutive decline in sales ratios has transmission effects that cannot be ignored. For polyester filament plants, inventory days rise passively, increasing capital occupation. In the later stage, they may resort to price discounts or production cuts to balance supply and demand. If production cuts expand, they will directly drag down polyester operating rates, subsequently affecting upstream PX and PTA demand expectations. For downstream weaving enterprises, the wait-and-see attitude in raw material procurement may control costs in the short term, but if prices later show a trend of increase, they may face higher replenishment costs. The market is in a typical "predawn" game phase; whoever breaks the deadlock first will seize pricing initiative.