On August 28, the thermometer of the polyester filament market pointed to a subtle scale: the average sales-to-output ratio of sampled enterprises stood at 34.7%, a modest recovery of 5.3 percentage points from the previous trading day, yet still lingering in the contraction zone below 40%. More intriguingly, against the backdrop of overall stagnation, one enterprise achieved a ratio as high as 500%, sharply contrasting with the majority hovering between 10% and 30%. This extreme divergence is not random noise but a direct projection of intense upstream-downstream bargaining in the chemical fiber chain.
The Truth Behind Data Divergence
The sales-to-output ratio is a core metric measuring the match between daily sales volume and production output. A ratio below 100% implies inventory accumulation, while above 100% indicates destocking or overselling. On August 28, the data distribution of sample enterprises exhibited a clear 'long tail' characteristic: most firms concentrated in the low range of 10%-40%, with sporadic 0% and 20% points, while the 500% extreme appears more like an occasional phenomenon of concentrated order delivery, unlikely to represent broad demand recovery. The overall level of 34.7% suggests that even if some enterprises lifted the average through price cuts or contract volume expansion, the mainstream market is still stuck in an awkward 'cannot sell' situation.
The Pincer of Downstream Resistance and Cost Transmission
Downstream users' resistance to high-priced raw materials is a key driver of the sluggish ratio. When polyester plants attempt to pass on upstream cost pressures, weaving enterprises respond with a 'buy-on-demand, just-in-time' strategy, leaving inquiries for polyester filament cold. This stalemate is essentially a renegotiation of profit distribution across the chain: if upstream PTA and MEG prices remain high, the processing spread of polyester filament plants compresses, strengthening their price-holding stance; meanwhile, fabric mills face weak end-order demand and their own finished goods inventory pressure, preferring to reduce operating rates rather than stockpile at high prices. The market thus falls into a cycle where upstream refuses to lower prices and downstream refuses to accept them, keeping the ratio low.
Chain Reactions in Regional Industrial Clusters
Polyester filament production is concentrated in Tongxiang and Xiaoshan in Zhejiang, and Shengze in Jiangsu, where weaving clusters are highly sensitive to raw material prices. Persistently low sales-to-output ratios will prompt polyester plants to cut production for maintenance, thereby affecting demand expectations for PTA and MEG, forming a negative feedback loop. For water-jet loom mills in Shengze, every day of price stagnation increases the difficulty of quoting orders—they fear that locking in prices may lead to inventory depreciation if raw materials fall, and also fear that rising raw materials will erode limited profits. This uncertainty is fragmenting the supply chain's procurement rhythm, turning 'long orders into short ones, and large orders into small ones.'
Opportunities and Risks in Divergence
The 500% case reminds us that the market is not monolithic. Some differentiated products (such as superfine denier, cationic modified, recycled polyester filament) may still have independent trends, while conventional POY, FDY, and DTY are mired in red-ocean competition. For buyers, this means the need for more refined differentiation by specification and supplier, rather than broadly negotiating on 'polyester filament.' For factories, prolonged low ratios may trigger price wars, but they also provide a window to adjust product structures and phase out outdated capacity.