28.6% — that was the average operating rate of polyester filament sample enterprises on September 10, failing to hold above the 30% mark and falling another 1.2 percentage points from the previous trading day. When the operating rate lingers at such low levels, it means more than 70% of the filament produced by polyester plants that day flows into inventory rather than to downstream looms. For the chemical fiber industry, this figure is more alarming than absolute prices because it directly reflects downstream acceptance of current price levels.
Industrial Signals Behind the Operating Rate
Looking at individual sample enterprises, operating rates range from 10% to 50%, showing high dispersion. Some producers with differentiated products can still maintain relatively normal shipment schedules, but most conventional varieties face sparse inquiries and weak transactions. Downstream resistance to high-priced raw materials is not a short-term phenomenon but a rational response after weaving margins have been continuously squeezed.
Weaving enterprises have shifted their procurement strategy from "just-in-time replenishment" to "extreme compression of raw material inventory." With limited order visibility, factories would rather bear the risk of material shortages than build positions at high prices. This collective behavior further weakens immediate demand for polyester filament, creating a stalemate where prices remain firm while operating rates stay depressed.
Deep-Seated Profit Distribution Conflicts
The profit distribution along the polyester supply chain is undergoing rebalancing. Upstream PTA and MEG segments, supported by crude oil costs, have limited room for concessions. Midstream polyester filament plants, under inventory pressure, face the dilemma of choosing between price cuts and production cuts. Downstream weaving segments cannot pass through raw material price increases due to poor transmission of end-user apparel order prices. The game among these three parties ultimately manifests as declining operating rates.
From the perspective of regional industrial belts, changes in the operating rate of weaving clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are key windows for observing the true strength of demand. When looms slow down, the procurement pace of polyester filament inevitably decelerates in tandem. This deceleration transmitted from end-users upstream is more sustained than a simple off-season production cut, meaning the industry will need more time to digest inventory.
Impact on Buyers and Exporters
For buyers, the current sluggish operating rate actually provides a bargaining window. To alleviate inventory pressure, polyester plants may offer more flexible pricing for bulk orders. However, attention must be paid to delivery times and quality consistency of low-priced supplies, which may vary. Procurement decisions should balance price with supply security.
For exporters, raw material price fluctuations directly affect quotation competitiveness. If polyester filament prices loosen later, fabric export quotations may gain some room for downward adjustment, but end buyers may demand corresponding concessions. Exporters should closely monitor operating rate changes as a leading indicator for identifying raw material price turning points.