29.8% — that figure is 18.4 percentage points lower than the previous trading day. The average sales-to-output ratio of sampled polyester filament enterprises suffered a cliff-edge decline on September 9, indicating that the concentrated restocking wave a day earlier had already drained short-term demand. For polyester plants, a ratio below 30% means daily output and shipments are badly out of balance, and inventory pressure is rebuilding.
The Weaving Slowdown Behind the Numbers
The plunge in the sales ratio is not an isolated event. Downstream weaving activity is losing pace, and this slowdown is more noteworthy than a typical seasonal production cut. Industry public data show that loom utilization rates have loosened in several regions, with texturing and weaving enterprises in some industrial belts voluntarily reducing shifts. Why are weavers slowing down? The core reason is declining visibility on end-user orders — apparel brands and traders are taking a wait-and-see stance on autumn-winter replenishment, leaving mills reluctant to stock up at full capacity.
From a supply chain transmission perspective, a weaving slowdown feeds back upward along the path of greige fabric, texturing, filament yarn, polyester chips and PTA. A lower filament sales ratio first pressures inventory turnover at polyester plants; once inventory days breach warning levels, plants will likely balance supply and demand through price concessions or production cuts. This means the probability of near-term price pressure on polyester filament is rising, and whether cost support from the raw material side holds depends on PTA and MEG trends.
Notably, this sales decline occurred within the traditional "Golden September" peak season window. In early September in previous years, weaving enterprises had usually entered peak production for autumn-winter fabrics, with sales ratios above 50% not uncommon. The lackluster peak this year suggests demand recovery is weaker than expected. For buyers, this is not entirely bad news — ample supply means more room to negotiate, but they should also guard against the waiting trap of "the longer you wait, the further prices fall."
Divergent Responses Across Industrial Belts
Different industrial clusters have varying sensitivity to this slowdown. In chemical fiber fabric hubs such as Keqiao and Shengze, where local supporting facilities are complete and order sources diverse, mills have greater flexibility in adjusting operations. In smaller belts focused on a single category, however, idle capacity could expand rapidly once core orders dry up. Recent reports of financial strain among apparel firms in Haining, while individual cases should not be over-interpreted, reflect cash flow pressure at the end-user level spreading upstream.
Export signals also warrant tracking. Overseas retailers are still digesting earlier inventory, replenishment is cautious, and combined with currency volatility and shipping cost uncertainty, export-oriented weavers are less willing to take orders. China customs data previously showed that export growth of chemical fiber textiles had slowed from the first half, and if this trend continues, it will further squeeze the domestic substitution space for filament yarn.
For polyester plants, the key now is not to wait for demand to recover spontaneously but to actively manage production and sales rhythm. Historical experience shows that after a sharp single-day swing in the sales ratio, a period of low-level consolidation usually follows; if plants can hold prices steady while keeping inventory manageable, that is more conducive to restoring chain confidence than blind price cuts.