A sales ratio of 25.8% in early September is close to a cold shower for the polyester chain's price-hike expectations. The average sales ratio of sampled producers fell 13.3 percentage points from the previous session, meaning that even as mills collectively raised quotes, downstream buyers did not follow. Costs are pushing prices up while demand votes no with its orders — that divergence is the most important signal in today's chemical fiber market.
Why cost-driven price hikes are failing
Persistently high polymerization costs are the direct reason filament producers followed the upward move. With feedstock prices firm and processing margins squeezed, mills would see cash flow tighten quickly without raising quotes. The problem is that whether a hike sticks never depends on the mill's intention, but on whether downstream is willing to pay for higher raw material costs.
Looking at the distribution of sales ratios, a few producers managed 70% or even 90% on the day, but most samples fell in the 10%–25% range, with several at zero. This extreme divergence shows the market is not entirely without transactions; purchasing is simply concentrated in a handful of low-priced cargoes or rigid restocking needs. The vast majority of downstream users resist current price levels, and thin trading is a broad condition rather than an isolated case.
For upstream producers, this means hike letters are easy to issue but hard to realize. If costs stay high while sales remain sluggish, mills face a dilemma: hold prices and tolerate inventory build-up, or quietly concede discounts and sacrifice book profits. Either choice transmits pressure to midstream weaving and trading.
Weaving slowdown is the real variable
More noteworthy than a single day's sales data is what is happening in weaving. The decline in loom utilization can no longer be explained simply as "off-season production cuts." In past off-seasons, cuts were阶段性 and reversible, with utilization recovering quickly once orders returned. Today's adjustments in some industrial belts look more like proactive contraction after a shift in order structure.
Factories in polyester fabric clusters such as Keqiao and Shengze are highly sensitive to raw material prices. When filament quotes move up repeatedly while end-market apparel and home textile orders fail to expand in tandem, the most rational choice for weavers is to lower utilization, digest inventory and slow raw material purchasing. That action directly suppresses filament sales and forms a loop of "price hike — resistance — inventory build — price cut."
Along the transmission chain, rising polymerization costs first hit filament makers' processing margins, then pass through quotes to weaving, and from weaving to fabric traders and apparel customers. But end consumption has not expanded noticeably, and resistance to passing prices downstream is far greater than the momentum to pass them up. That is why cost-driven increases tend to fail at this stage.
Price expectations and procurement rhythm
Judging from export momentum reflected in China Customs and industry public data, external demand has not shown better-than-expected recovery, and domestic demand remains stable but soft. Without demand-side support, near-term upside for polyester filament is limited, and the market is more likely to see high-level oscillation with localized softening.
For buyers, now is not the time to chase prices. A sharp drop in sales ratio often leads price adjustments, and mills' willingness to hold quotes weakens as inventory rises. For traders, the risk of stockpiling on a bet of further gains is clearly higher than in previous years, because weaving cutbacks directly slow turnover in the middle环节.
It is worth noting that if costs remain firm, there is still support beneath filament prices, and a deep decline is unlikely. The market is more likely to enter a tug-of-war phase of "stable quotes, thin transactions, hidden discounts." At this stage, what matters is not judging direction but managing cash flow and inventory.