A sales rate of 39.1% is already a cold signal for the polyester filament industry. What deserves more attention is that most manufacturers raised their quotations on the same day, creating a clear divergence between prices and actual transactions. Upstream players want to hold prices firm, downstream buyers refuse to follow, and midstream traders dare not stock up. This standoff is more troublesome for mills than a simple price decline.
The Divergence Between Price Hikes and Falling Sales
On September 2, the average sales rate of sampled polyester filament enterprises came in at 39.1%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous trading day's close. On the same day, most manufacturers raised quotations, but the gains in transaction centers varied significantly. This suggests that the price hikes were driven more by cost pressures or proactive price support than by demand.
Looking at the specific sales data, the dispersion is extremely high: the lowest was 0%, while the highest reached 310%. Such extreme divergence indicates that the market is not shrinking as a whole, but rather demand is sharply fragmenting across different specifications and customers. Some manufacturers may have seen sales rates spike due to low-price promotions or concentrated order deliveries, while most faced users retreating to the sidelines.
Small replenishment by a few downstream users was driven more by immediate needs than by trend-based purchasing. Most users chose to stay out of the market, indicating limited acceptance of current price levels or a lack of confidence in the outlook.
Upstream-Downstream Transmission and Industrial Belt Reaction
As a midstream product in the chemical fiber chain, polyester filament sales directly reflect the operating willingness of downstream weaving mills. A sales rate below 40% means weaving enterprises have significantly slowed their purchasing pace. If fabric companies in major textile hubs like Keqiao and Shengze are also seeing weaker orders, then the weak demand for filament is not a short-term phenomenon.
On the cost side, manufacturers' price hikes may be influenced by fluctuations in raw materials such as PTA and MEG. However, cost-driven price increases are hard to pass downstream when demand is weak. If weaving mills cannot pass costs on to fabric buyers, they will reduce raw material purchases, creating a negative feedback loop.
For traders, the current cold market means slower inventory turnover and higher capital occupation costs. Some traders may be forced to cut prices to clear stock, further weighing on market price centers.
Impact on Buyers and Exporters
For buyers, this is a window for observation, not a time to bottom-fish. Low sales rates suggest inventory pressure may be building at mills, but manufacturers are still holding prices, and prices have not yet fully adjusted. If sales rates remain below 50%, manufacturers will likely cut prices to destock, at which point procurement costs may fall.
For exporters, the key is to watch how exchange rate fluctuations and ocean freight changes affect export quotations for polyester fabrics. If filament prices remain firm while overseas customers push for lower prices, exporters' profit margins will be further squeezed. It is advisable to include price adjustment clauses in quotations or shorten quotation validity periods.
From a broader perspective, fluctuations in the chemical fiber sales rate often lead changes in textile and apparel export data. If the sales rate remains sluggish through September, export growth in the fourth quarter may face downward pressure.