77.5% — that figure became the most repeated number in polyester filament circles after the September 24 close. The average sales-to-output ratio of sampled producers jumped 54 percentage points from the previous trading day, with some mills reaching daily ratios of 240% and 180%. This single-day surge was not driven by a sudden demand expansion but by concentrated discounting, a distinction that matters greatly for reading the market ahead.
The Logic Behind the Sales Data
Looking at the distribution of daily sales ratios, the sample shows clear polarization: highs of 240%, 180% and 150% alongside lows of 0%, 20% and 30%. This dispersion indicates that the pickup was not broad-based but concentrated among mills willing to widen discounts.
In other words, the jump in the sales ratio reflects inventory transfer driven by pricing tools rather than genuine growth in end-user orders. For upstream polyester producers, the intent to destock before the holiday is unmistakable; for downstream weaving and trading, low-priced supply has indeed opened a restocking window.
Notably, further discounts were still expected in late trading. This suggests some mills have not yet fully conceded on price, and the sales ratio could fluctuate in the final sessions before the holiday.
Pre-Holiday Restocking and Inventory Transmission
The concentrated discounting before the Mid-Autumn Festival is essentially a balancing act between expected holiday shutdowns and inventory pressure. During the break, logistics slow and downstream operating rates decline. If inventories are not effectively reduced beforehand, post-holiday accumulation risk will directly weigh on prices.
From a chain perspective, softer filament prices will gradually seep into texturing and weaving. Texturers may see short-term margin recovery as raw material costs decline, but if end-use fabric orders fail to follow, that margin will quickly be eroded by fierce processing fee competition.
For fabric hubs such as Keqiao and Shengze, whether low-priced raw materials translate into actual purchases depends on the order books of weaving mills. Most weavers are currently restocking only for immediate needs, with limited speculative appetite, which caps the spillover of the sales recovery across the chain.
Impact on Price Expectations and Purchasing Rhythm
A sharp single-day rebound in the sales ratio can easily create the illusion of improving demand. But the data structure — high-ratio and low-ratio mills coexisting — points to a typical discount-driven sales campaign rather than a trend reversal.
For traders, pre-holiday low-priced supply holds short-term appeal, but the risk of further price declines after the holiday warrants caution. If crude oil and PTA prices weaken during the break, polyester cost support will loosen, and filament prices could continue drifting lower.
For downstream factories, a more rational strategy is to purchase in batches aligned with order flow rather than stockpiling all at once. The high volatility of the sales ratio itself signals significant market divergence; a single day's data is insufficient for trend judgment.