25.4% — that single number spread through polyester circles quickly after the September 28 close. The average sales-to-output ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises plunged 52.1 percentage points from the previous trading day, meaning that for every 100 tons of yarn produced, only about 25 tons were sold. The signal of weak post-holiday demand arrived earlier and sharper than most expected.
Market Sentiment Behind the Data
Looking at individual enterprises, the divergence is striking. The lowest ratio was 0%, the highest reached 300%, but most clustered in the 10%-40% range. A few low-priced cargoes could still move, suggesting demand is not absent — rather, price expectations and purchasing节奏 are severely mismatched. Downstream weavers remain观望, inquiries are thin, and transactions are mostly rigid restocking.
The plunge is not an isolated event. Some mills pre-drew purchasing demand before the holiday, while post-holiday terminal orders failed to follow through, causing a supply-demand imbalance at polyester plants. More notably, this decline occurred at the start of the traditional "Silver October" peak season, directly shaking supply chain confidence.
Why such a violent single-day swing? On one hand, downstream operating rates recovered slowly in the first post-holiday week, with the comprehensive loom utilization rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang rising less than in previous years. On the other, feedstock price volatility made buyers wary of catching a high, prompting them to delay purchases. Together, these amplified short-term fluctuations in sales data.
Supply Chain Transmission and Regional Response
Weak polyester filament sales will suppress upstream PTA and MEG purchasing demand, while affecting downstream grey fabric and finished fabric price expectations. Traders in core textile belts such as Keqiao and Shengze report many inquiries but few firm orders, with customers driving hard bargains. Some weavers have begun reducing operating rates to avoid inventory depreciation.
From an inventory perspective, if the sales-to-output ratio stays below 50%, polyester plant inventories will visibly accumulate within one to two weeks. Plants may then resort to price cuts or proactive production cuts. For feedstock suppliers, this means weaker rigid demand for PTA and MEG, raising the probability of price pressure.
On the export front, overseas retailers are digesting inventory at uneven paces, the recovery in European and American orders remains limited, and Southeast Asian competition is diverting some mid-to-low-end orders. Export-oriented enterprises are more cautious about raw material procurement, adopting small-batch, multi-batch strategies, further dampening concentrated purchasing demand for polyester filament.
Implications for Buyers and Mills
In the short term, weak sales mean polyester filament prices lack upward momentum and may even retreat. Buyers gain bargaining power but must watch quality consistency of low-priced cargoes. Mills face a dilemma: cutting prices to destock may erode profits, while holding prices may worsen inventory buildup.
In the medium term, if terminal demand does not improve markedly by mid-October, the polyester chain will enter a passive destocking phase. Industry operating rates may be proactively lowered to balance supply and demand. For traders, controlling stockpiling pace and prioritizing cash flow safety is prudent.