On June 25, the average sales-to-output ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises was only 29.5%, a sharp drop of 16.1 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament produced that day, less than 30 tons were absorbed by the market—inventory is piling up at a visible pace.
The collapse on the cost side is the primary trigger for this plunge in sales. The continuous decline in raw material prices has severely suppressed the purchasing willingness of traders and weaving factories. Under the conventional logic of 'buying on rising prices, not falling,' downstream players are generally staying on the sidelines, waiting for clear signs of a price bottom.
What the Sales Data Signals
Looking at the published sales data from sample enterprises, most companies recorded sales-to-output ratios between 10% and 40% on that day, with some even hitting an extreme 0%. Even the best-performing enterprise only reached 70%, far below what the industry typically considers a 'safety line.'
This across-the-board sluggishness reflects a transmission blockage in the current textile industry chain. As an intermediate raw material, the sales performance of polyester filament directly indicates the willingness of weaving mills to operate and the fullness of end-user orders. When the sales-to-output ratio remains below 50% for consecutive days, it suggests that downstream loom utilization rates may be passively declining.
How Cost Declines Affect Market Psychology
The decline in polyester raw material prices is not a short-term fluctuation but a trend-based downward shift. The weakening cost support has directly undermined the price foundation of polyester filament. For downstream buyers, the current situation is a classic 'negative feedback loop': the more prices fall, the less they buy; the less they buy, the more prices fall.
More importantly, this wait-and-see sentiment is spreading from polyester filament to the entire chemical fiber category. Trading activity in related products such as polyester chips and polyester staple fiber is also affected, raising the risk of inventory pressure being transmitted back upstream.
Practical Impact on Textile Enterprises
For weaving mills and fabric traders, the biggest risk in the current market is not price itself, but the liquidity risk of inventory. If raw material stocks accumulate during a downtrend, they will directly erode a company's cash flow and profit margins.
At the same time, the order pace from end-apparel brands has not accelerated synchronously, with both domestic and export markets lacking strong demand drivers. This means that even if raw material prices stabilize, the recovery of the sales-to-output ratio will have to wait for a substantial rebound in end-user orders.