According to publicly available industry data from June 22, the average sales-to-production ratio for polyester filament sample enterprises is only 39.5%, an increase of just 1.3 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament produced that day, fewer than 40 tons were absorbed by the market, putting increasing pressure on inventory accumulation.
Behind the Low Sales-to-Production Ratio
Looking at the specific sales data from sample enterprises, the ratio showed extreme divergence: the highest reached 120%, while the lowest fell to 0%. Among the 20 sample companies, 12 had ratios below 40%, with four even reporting zero. This 'ice and fire' situation is not due to individual operational mistakes but reflects the overall supply-demand contradiction in the entire industry.
Downstream users generally adopt a 'buy-as-needed' strategy and are unwilling to build up inventory proactively. This cautious sentiment directly leads to thin spot market transactions, with a lack of sustained procurement support. Only one company in the public data achieved a ratio above 100%, indicating that even if a few enterprises managed to destock through specific channels, the overall market has not shown signs of recovery.
Why Has the Cost Transmission Mechanism Failed?
The upstream raw materials for polyester filament—PTA and ethylene glycol—have maintained relatively firm prices recently, but this cost pressure has not effectively transmitted downstream. The root cause is the sluggish recovery in demand for terminal textiles and apparel, with weaving mills operating at low capacity and having insufficient rigid demand for raw materials.
From the perspective of the industrial chain transmission logic, when upstream prices rise but downstream cannot bear them, midstream polyester filament producers become the 'sandwich layer': rising raw material costs compress profit margins, while product selling prices cannot rise synchronously due to weak demand. The sales-to-production ratio persistently below 40% is a direct reflection of this structural dilemma.
It is worth noting that the current sales-to-production data only reflects the performance of sample enterprises, but as an industry bellwether, its sluggishness signals that the chemical fiber market will continue to face destocking pressure in the short term. Without significant improvement in terminal orders, the ratio may continue to hover around 40% or even decline further.
Implications for Buyers and Foreign Trade Companies
For downstream procurement companies, the current market offers a rare window for price negotiation. With suppliers eager to destock, buyers can moderately push for lower prices or more flexible payment terms. However, they should be wary of the low-price trap—some companies may dump inventory due to tight cash flow, and product quality and delivery stability require careful verification.
Foreign trade companies face a more complex situation. On one hand, overseas market demand is volatile, with European and American retailers still in a destocking cycle; on the other hand, fluctuations in the renminbi exchange rate and changes in shipping costs add uncertainty to order profitability. In this context, locking in short-term orders and avoiding long-term contract risks may be a more prudent strategy.