Chemical Fiber Market Cools: What the 27.4% Daily Sales-Production Ratio Signals for the Supply Chain

On June 26, the chemical fiber market experienced a notable slowdown in transactions, with the average sales-production ratio for polyester filament yarn sample enterprises falling to just 27.4%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous day. Behind this data lies not just short-term volatility but a deeper adjustment in the supply-demand dynamics of the entire chemical fiber industry chain.

Sales-Production Data: Reading the Industry Temperature

Looking at specific enterprises, the day's data distribution was highly uneven, with some companies reporting zero sales. Among the 20 sample enterprises, the ratio ranged from 0% to 70%, with most concentrated in the 15%-30% band. Industry data shows that only a few reached above 40%, and the appearance of zero-transaction firms indicates the market has entered a typical buyer-dominated pattern.

This divergence is no accident. The Texworld editorial team notes that recent volatility in polyester raw material prices has led downstream weaving mills to adopt a just-in-time procurement strategy, avoiding large inventory builds. As a bellwether for the chemical fiber market, polyester filament yarn's persistently low sales-production ratio directly reflects weaker-than-expected end-demand recovery.

Chain Transmission: From Inventory Pressure to Price Negotiation

A ratio consistently below 30% means rapid inventory accumulation. By industry experience, when the ratio stays below 40% for a week, chemical fiber companies are typically forced to cut prices to clear stock. The current 27.4% has already breached this warning line, increasing downward price pressure.

On the upstream side, PTA and MEG prices have recently weakened, reducing cost support and further increasing polyester filament yarn's price flexibility. Downstream mills are exploiting this window to push for lower purchase prices, shifting the bargaining center downward. Notably, this game is not one-sided—chemical fiber firms may respond by reducing output to support prices, triggering a new round of supply-demand balance adjustments.

Regional Industrial Cluster Response: Caution Dominates Operations

In major polyester filament yarn clusters like Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan, operating rates have seen slight reductions. Industry data shows some small-to-medium plants have cut loads from 85% to around 75% to control inventory growth. In downstream weaving hubs like Keqiao and Nantong, procurement managers generally report maintaining only essential purchases, with no plans to add raw material inventory.

This synchronized contraction on both ends further reduces market liquidity. The Texworld editorial team believes the chemical fiber market will maintain a weak, range-bound pattern in the near term until clear demand recovery signals or a significant cost-side rebound emerges.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - This is a classic buyer's market. Leverage bargaining power to lock in prices in batches, avoiding large one-time purchases that could leave you exposed to price swings. - Monitor PTA and MEG futures trends. When raw materials show consecutive signs of stabilization, consider increasing procurement volumes. - Prioritize partnerships with well-capitalized, large-scale chemical fiber firms to mitigate supply risks from potential production cuts at smaller plants.

For Chemical Fiber Plants - Consider moderately reducing operating loads, targeting a sales-production ratio above 40% to prevent inventory from tying up cash. - Strengthen long-term agreement ties with core downstream clients, using volume discounts to stabilize shipment pace. - Closely track weaving mill operating rates. If these consistently fall below 60%, further capacity contraction may be necessary.