The latest production-sales data released on June 25 shows that the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises fell to only 29.5%, a sharp decline of 16.1 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure marks a recent low, meaning nearly 70% of output failed to convert into actual sales, with inventory pressure rapidly building.
Dual Squeeze of Cost Collapse and Demand Stagnation
The logic of industrial chain transmission is reversing. The persistent decline in costs should theoretically stimulate downstream restocking, but the opposite is happening—the magnitude of the cost drop has exacerbated market wait-and-see sentiment. Buyers generally expect further price declines and prefer to delay orders rather than buy at current levels. This "buy on rising, not falling" psychology was fully reflected in the day's data: multiple sample enterprises recorded zero transactions, with the highest sales ratio reaching only 70%, and only a few companies achieving above 60%.
Looking at the data distribution, about 30% of sample enterprises had sales ratios below 20%, including several with zero transactions. Meanwhile, less than 20% of enterprises achieved ratios above 50%. This divergence highlights widening gaps in customer structure, product differentiation, and pricing strategies. For conventional polyester filament yarn producers lacking brand premium and differentiated products, cost declines mean further compression of profit margins without corresponding sales volume increases.
Inventory Pressure Transmission Across Industrial Belts
Major production clusters such as Xiaoshan, Shaoxing in Zhejiang, and Shengze in Jiangsu are facing severe inventory tests. Chemical fiber enterprises in these regions typically maintain high operating rates to spread fixed costs, but with sales ratios below 30%, continued production only accelerates inventory buildup. Industry public data shows that finished product inventory days at major polyester plants have risen from 10-12 days to over 15 days, with some approaching the 20-day warning line.
- Shengze area: As one of the largest polyester filament yarn production bases, local weaving enterprise operating rates have dropped from 75% in May to 68%, signaling weakening downstream demand.
- Xiaoshao area: Printing, dyeing, and weaving clusters have significantly slowed procurement, with some extending regular raw material purchase cycles from 7 days to 10-12 days.
- Changle, Fujian: Warp knitting industrial cluster raw material purchases fell about 15% month-on-month, with enterprises preferring just-in-time buying.
This regional demand contraction is not isolated. The simultaneous decline in upstream PTA and MEG prices has further reinforced the bearish outlook across the entire chain. Since mid-June, spot PTA prices have cumulatively fallen over 300 yuan/ton, and MEG by nearly 200 yuan/ton, leaving polyester filament yarn without a price anchor.
Price Game in Active De-stocking Cycle
The current market state has shifted from passive inventory accumulation to active de-stocking. Enterprises face limited options: either cut prices to free up cash or reduce production to control supply. Historical experience suggests that when sales ratios remain below 40% for over a week, the industry typically initiates a round of concentrated maintenance and production cuts.
Notably, downstream weaving enterprises are also under increasing cash flow pressure. After a brief recovery early this year, terminal garment export orders have diverged again—European and American market replenishment demand has fallen short of expectations, while the Southeast Asian order shift effect continues. This means weaving enterprises themselves face the dilemma of "high finished goods inventory and few new orders," naturally dampening their willingness to purchase raw materials.
From a price perspective, the spreads among POY, FDY, and DTY are narrowing. Profit margins for conventional products have been compressed to near breakeven, while differentiated products (such as cationic dyeable, moisture-wicking functional textiles) maintain stronger pricing power, with sales ratios generally 10-15 percentage points above the industry average. This sends a clear signal: in a cost-down cycle, the speed of product mix adjustment determines an enterprise's resilience.