On June 25, the average sales-to-output ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises plummeted to 29.5%, a sharp drop of 16.1 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure means that for every 100 tons of product produced that day, less than 30 tons were sold, and inventory pressure is accelerating.
Cost Transmission and Market Sentiment
The cliff-like decline in the sales-to-output ratio is not an isolated event. Industry data shows that the continuous weakening of upstream raw material costs is the direct trigger. The prices of PTA and MEG have been under pressure recently, weakening the cost support for polyester filament. Downstream weaving companies are generally adopting a wait-and-see attitude, significantly slowing down their procurement pace. From the specific sales data of the day, more than half of the sample enterprises had a sales-to-output ratio of 20% or below, with some even hitting zero, reflecting a frozen market transaction.
This suppression of trading sentiment by cost declines is essentially a signal disorder during the redistribution of profits along the supply chain. When the market expects raw material prices to continue falling, buyers tend to postpone purchases to reduce the risk of inventory depreciation, leading to a sharp deterioration in intermediate sales data. For major polyester filament consuming clusters like Shengze and Changxing, if this wait-and-see sentiment persists, it will directly impact the operating rates of weaving mills.
Industrial Cluster Response and Inventory Pressure
From the perspective of industrial clusters, the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region is the main production and sales area for polyester filament, and the sample enterprise data essentially represents the market status of this region. A sales-to-output ratio below 30% means that the average inventory turnover days for enterprises will be significantly extended. According to industry practice, the normal inventory turnover days for polyester filament are 10-15 days. At the current sales-to-output level, if the existing operating rate is maintained, inventory days may quickly rise to over 20 days, approaching the warning line.
Divergence has already appeared among enterprises: some large factories maintain relatively stable shipments due to their capital advantages and long-term contract customers, while small and medium-sized polyester plants face greater capital recovery pressure. This divergence will further accelerate industry consolidation—cash-strapped enterprises may be forced to reduce prices to destock, triggering a new round of price wars and further squeezing industry profits.
Downstream Demand Signals
The sluggish sales-to-output ratio is not entirely driven by the cost side. Weak demand from the terminal textile and garment sector is a deeper reason. June is traditionally a low season, and coupled with overseas orders recovering slower than expected, weaving companies' willingness to stock up on raw materials has been weak from the start. The cost decline only amplifies this trend. According to tracking data from Texcircle, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has decreased by 3-5 percentage points since the beginning of June, confirming the reality of shrinking downstream demand.
For buyers, the current market environment presents both risks and opportunities. Raw material prices are in a downward channel, but when they will bottom out depends on the game between cost and demand. In the short term, polyester filament prices may continue to follow raw materials downward, but the room for decline is constrained by the willingness of polyester plants to cut production.