On June 26, the average sales-to-output ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises stood at only 27.4%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous trading day, with the market adopting a cautious wait-and-see stance and spot transactions remaining sluggish. This figure means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced that day, less than 28 tons were absorbed by the market, with the remaining 72 tons directly converted into inventory.
Supply-Demand Imbalance Behind the Sales Rate
Looking at the public sales data from sample enterprises, the sales-to-output ratios of 20 sample companies on that day were highly dispersed: the highest reached 70%, the lowest was 0%, and most fell between 15% and 40%. This dispersion indicates significant differences in order structures and customer stickiness among companies, but the generally low average has already sounded an industry alarm.
As a core intermediate product in the chemical fiber industry chain, the sales rate of polyester filament yarn directly reflects the operating willingness of downstream weaving and dyeing sectors. Currently, it is the traditional off-season for textiles, with terminal apparel brands slowing down their stocking pace. Coupled with the wait-and-see sentiment caused by earlier raw material price fluctuations, weaving enterprises generally adopt a "buy-as-needed" strategy, unwilling to build up inventories. This mentality, when transmitted upstream, results in the continuous decline of the sales rate.
Inventory Accumulation vs. Price Expectations
A sales rate below 30% means that industry inventories are growing at a rate of over 2% per day. If this trend continues for a week, the inventory levels of sample enterprises will rise by more than 15%, approaching or even exceeding the safety inventory red line. Historically, when the inventory days of polyester filament yarn exceed 20 days, production companies are often forced to cut prices to destock, triggering a price correction across the entire industry chain.
From the cost side, recent PTA and MEG prices have maintained narrow fluctuations without significant declines, meaning that the profit margins of polyester filament yarn are being eroded by inventory costs. Production companies face a dilemma: if they proactively cut prices, they may further strengthen downstream wait-and-see expectations; if they insist on maintaining prices, they must bear the pressure of inventory depreciation and capital occupation.
Impact on Downstream Buyers and Foreign Trade
For weaving and fabric buyers, the current window of low sales rates may actually mean greater room for negotiation. Some polyester filament yarn suppliers under high inventory pressure have already started to offer discounts for off-the-book sales, with the gap between actual transaction prices and listed prices widening. It is recommended that buyers lock in low-priced supplies in batches before mid-July to avoid being forced to chase higher prices during the rebound after inventory clearance.
For foreign trade enterprises, the downward pressure on polyester filament yarn prices will directly affect the cost structure of exported fabrics. Considering shipping cycles and exchange rate fluctuations, the current low-price window for raw materials may last for 2-3 weeks, after which prices are likely to bottom out and rebound with the start of the Q3 stocking season. Export order quotations should fully account for this time lag.