On June 22, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn among sample enterprises stood at just 39.5%, up a marginal 1.3 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced, less than 40 tons were absorbed by the market. Downstream users generally adopted a cautious wait-and-see approach, with spot market transactions remaining sluggish; several sample enterprises even recorded a 0% sales ratio.
Signals Behind the Sales Data
Looking at the publicly available sample data from over 20 enterprises, the sales-to-production ratios were highly uneven: the highest reached 120%, while the lowest was 0%. Specific figures included 120%, 70%, 60%, 45%, 40%, and other intervals, but most enterprises clustered in the low range of 10%-40%. This divergence reflects two issues: first, a clear gap in customer stickiness and pricing strategy between leading firms and smaller players; second, the overall weak demand is not an isolated phenomenon but an industry-wide procurement contraction.
Compared with the same period last year, the current 39.5% sales ratio is at a historically low level for this time of year. Texcircle has learned that downstream weaving mills generally maintain raw material inventories of 7-10 days, far below the normal level of 15-20 days. This "buy-as-needed" strategy essentially reflects an expectation of further price declines.
Time Lag and Mismatch in Upstream-Downstream Transmission
The persistent low sales ratio of polyester filament yarn stems from a pricing tug-of-war between upstream and downstream players. Upstream polyester plants, supported by PTA and MEG costs, maintain operating rates above 85%, with no significant production cuts on the supply side. Meanwhile, downstream weaving mills, especially the water-jet loom clusters in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region, have seen their operating rates drop from 75% in May to around 65% currently, due to weak terminal apparel orders.
This combination of "high operating rates and low sales ratios" is causing rapid accumulation of finished product inventories at polyester plants. Industry public data shows that as of mid-June, social inventories of polyester filament yarn had climbed to about 25 days, an increase of nearly 5 days from early May. Inventory pressure has prompted some plants to adopt price-cutting promotions, but the downstream mentality of "buying on rising prices, not falling" has intensified wait-and-see sentiment.
For foreign trade enterprises, exchange rate volatility and uncertainty in overseas orders further compress procurement decision space. The destocking cycle in the European market is not yet over, and competition from Southeast Asian textile capacity is also diverting domestic orders.
Price Expectations and Operational Strategies
Current polyester filament yarn prices are at a mid-year level, but if the sales ratio continues to stay below 50%, downward price pressure will increase significantly. Texcircle believes the next two weeks are a critical window for judging market direction: if polyester plants can jointly cut production by 10%-15%, the supply-demand contradiction may be temporarily alleviated; conversely, if current operating rates are maintained, prices may fall below cost, triggering a new round of industry consolidation.