The polyester filament yarn market is experiencing a sharp shift in sentiment. On June 26, industry public data showed that the average sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises fell to 27.4%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced, less than 28 tons were absorbed by the market. The market has moved directly from cautious observation to freezing point, with spot transactions nearly grinding to a halt.
Signals Behind the Data
Looking at individual enterprises, the data reveals extreme distribution disparity. Among 20 sample companies, only 4 achieved a ratio above 30%, with the highest reaching 70%. The lowest recorded a ratio of 0%. The remaining 15 companies were generally concentrated between 15% and 40%, forming a pattern of 'few meeting standards, many sluggish, individual at zero'. This dispersion indicates that the current weak demand is not an isolated sales strategy issue but a systemic contraction in downstream purchasing willingness across the entire supply chain.
Historically, a daily ratio of 27.4% has touched the lower range of recent years. In normal times, the daily sales-to-production ratio for polyester filament yarn typically ranges from 40% to 60%, and can spike above 80% during peak seasons. The current level implies that factory inventories are rapidly accumulating, while traders and weaving enterprises are universally adopting a 'buy as needed' zero-inventory strategy.
Dual Squeeze of Costs and Orders
Behind this plunge lies a concentrated eruption of contradictions in the chemical fiber industry chain. On the cost side, while raw material prices for PTA and MEG have eased slightly, they remain at historically mid-to-high levels, severely squeezing cash flow profits for polyester filament yarn factories. These factories face a dilemma between protecting profits and maintaining sales—price cuts could lead to losses, while holding prices further deters buyers.
Pressure from the demand side is more direct. Downstream weaving and texturing enterprises generally report that after a brief rebound in the first half of the year, terminal garment export orders weakened again in June. High inflation in European and American markets has curbed consumer spending, and domestic e-commerce platforms' '618' promotion failed to effectively boost fabric stocking. Loom operating rates have dropped from over 70% in May to around 60% currently, naturally reducing rigid demand purchases of polyester filament yarn.
Market Expectations and Liquidity Risks
More concerning is that this 'wait-and-see' sentiment is self-reinforcing. When most market participants anticipate continued price declines, purchasing behavior is indefinitely postponed, accelerating price drops. Currently, inventory pressure at polyester plants has not yet transmitted to prices, but if the ratio fails to recover above 35% in the coming week, factories will likely launch price promotions to free up capital.
For traders, the most dangerous factor now is not price itself but liquidity freeze. In a market with a ratio below 30%, spot transactions nearly halt, making it difficult for holders to find buyers. Once factories begin concentrated inventory dumping, traders who accumulated stocks earlier will face significant spread losses.