On June 25, the polyester filament yarn market witnessed a sudden chill in trading activity. The average sales-to-output ratio among sample enterprises plummeted to 29.5%, a sharp decline of 16.1 percentage points from the previous trading day's close. This figure not only falls far below the industry's prosperity line but also marks a recent low, indicating that downstream purchasing appetite has hit rock bottom.
Cost Collapse as Primary Driver
The direct catalyst for this plunge in the sales-to-output ratio is the persistent weakness on the cost side. The notable decline in upstream raw material prices has severely dampened the trading atmosphere in the polyester filament yarn market. When cost expectations turn bearish, downstream weaving mills generally adopt a 'buy on rising, not on falling' strategy, postponing procurement plans and leaving spot transactions exceptionally quiet. Specific data from that day shows that very few sample enterprises achieved a ratio above 50%, with the majority concentrated in the 10%-40% range, and some even reporting zero sales for the day—a clear indicator of severely eroded market confidence.
Industrial Chain Transmission Under Pressure
As a central link in the chemical fiber industry chain, the sharp drop in polyester filament yarn's sales-to-output ratio not only reflects its own predicament but also sends dangerous signals both upstream and downstream. For upstream PTA and ethylene glycol sectors, shrinking demand will exacerbate their inventory pressure, potentially dragging raw material prices further down. For downstream weaving and dyeing enterprises, while continuously falling raw material prices lower procurement costs, they also introduce the risk of inventory depreciation, making their decision-making more cautious. Once such a wait-and-see sentiment permeates the entire chain, it will significantly prolong the destocking cycle and suppress any potential price rebound.
Regional and Category Impact Analysis
From a regional industrial cluster perspective, enterprises in major polyester filament yarn production areas like Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan are generally facing shipment pressure. Some small and medium-sized factories have started offering discounts to alleviate inventory pressure, but with limited effect. In terms of product structure, the three mainstream varieties—POY, FDY, and DTY—have all been affected. DTY, benefiting from relatively higher processing margins, maintained a slightly better ratio but remains at a low level overall. Notably, this cliff-like drop is not an isolated event but a continuation of the weak trend since mid-June, indicating the market has entered a phase of cyclical adjustment.
Outlook and Operational Strategies
In the short term, the polyester filament yarn market is likely to continue its weak performance. Without significant positive catalysts on the cost side, it will be difficult to revive downstream procurement momentum. Enterprises should prioritize controlling inventory levels to avoid exacerbating cash flow pressure through passive stock accumulation. Concurrently, close attention must be paid to PTA plant maintenance schedules and crude oil price fluctuations, as these factors could become key variables in breaking the current stalemate.