The chemical fiber supply chain is feeling a chill from the end market. Data from the close on June 22 shows that the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises was only 39.5%, a slight increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous trading day. Yet this figure remains in what the industry calls the "cold zone"—below 50%, meaning more than 60% of capacity failed to convert into effective sales. Downstream buyers are largely on the sidelines, waiting and watching, with spot trading thin. The entire link exhibits signs of a solidified "buy on rising, not on falling" mentality.
The Industrial Logic Behind the Data
The 39.5% figure is not an isolated incident. Looking at the specific production-sales data from the 20 sample enterprises released that day, the distribution is extremely uneven: the highest reached 120%, while the lowest was 0%. Among them, two enterprises had a rate of 0%, and another four were below 20%. This "ice and fire" situation indicates that demand does exist but is highly concentrated among a few suppliers with price advantages or differentiated products.
More notably, less than 30% of enterprises recorded rates between 40% and 70%, with most languishing below 30%. This means that inventory is passively accumulating in the intermediate links of the chain. For weaving and texturing mills, a slowdown in raw material procurement directly translates into adjustments in operating rates. If this downturn persists for more than two weeks, production cuts or shutdowns will become unavoidable considerations.
Time-Lag Effects in Upstream-Downstream Transmission
The decline in polyester filament sales rates appears on the surface to be a downstream procurement decision delay, but the underlying cause lies in the contraction of orders in the end garment and home textile markets. June is traditionally a slow season, but this year it is compounded by multiple factors, including an extended destocking cycle in major overseas markets and an uneven pace of domestic consumption recovery.
On the cost side, PTA and MEG prices have been trading in a narrow range recently, failing to provide clear cost support or an upward price catalyst for polyester filament. Lacking directional guidance, downstream weaving enterprises prefer a "buy-as-needed" zero-inventory strategy rather than bulk stockpiling. This strategy, in turn, intensifies the sales pressure on upstream polyester plants, forming a negative feedback loop.
Differentiated Responses in Regional Industrial Clusters
Different industrial clusters are diverging in their response strategies to the current market. Some large-scale weaving enterprises in the Shengze area report that orders are still dominated by repeat business from old customers, with raw material procurement largely maintained, but the frequency of inquiries for new orders has dropped significantly. In contrast, in areas like Changxing and Xiuzhou, where water-jet looms predominate, some small and medium-sized factories have begun to actively reduce operating rates from full capacity to around 70% to digest finished goods inventory.
Fabric traders at the Keqiao Textile City are acting even more cautiously. According to publicly available industry information, trading volumes for conventional low-end lining varieties such as polyester taffeta and spring cloth have declined by about 15%-20% month-on-month. Meanwhile, varieties with functional or differentiated selling points, such as recycled polyester or antibacterial finishes, still maintain relatively stable inquiry volumes. This structural demand difference is forcing upstream chemical fiber companies to adjust their product strategies.
The Window for Price Expectation Games
Spot prices for the three major polyester filament varieties—POY, FDY, and DTY—have already fallen by 200-400 yuan per ton compared to the same period last month. Historical patterns suggest that if the sales-to-production ratio remains below 40% for more than a week, factories typically resort to proactive price cuts to destock. However, the room for further price reductions in this cycle is constrained by rigid raw material costs: PTA processing margins have already been compressed to relatively low levels, limiting further downside.
This implies that polyester filament prices may enter a period of "bottom grinding" at current levels for some time. For downstream buyers, this presents both a risk and an opportunity: the short-term downside for prices is limited, but if end orders fail to recover, the risk of inventory depreciation will shift upstream.