After several consecutive days of sluggish production and sales in the chemical fiber market, a noteworthy indicator reversal appeared on June 24: the average production-sales ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises rose to 45.6% from 34.2% the previous trading day, a single-day increase of 11.4 percentage points. Although this value is still far below the industry-recognized 80% prosperity line, the speed of the rebound suggests that the market bottom may be under test.
The Real Picture Behind Production-Sales Data
According to industry public data, the distribution of production-sales ratios among sample enterprises on that day showed clear polarization: a few companies achieved high ratios of 80% to 150%, while most were concentrated in the low range of 10% to 40%. This divergence means that not all polyester filament yarn factories benefited from this rebound wave—only those that took the lead in price reduction promotions successfully unlocked some downstream orders.
Analyzing from the industrial chain transmission perspective, the improvement in production-sales ratio is not a fundamental recovery in demand, but a short-term behavior driven by price signals. By actively reducing prices, polyester filament yarn factories partially transferred inventory pressure to downstream weaving enterprises, which chose to replenish stocks at low points of raw material prices. This process is essentially a vertical transfer of inventory, not a substantial start of terminal consumption.
Deep Analysis of Industry Supply-Demand Contradictions
The core contradiction facing the current chemical fiber industry is: the speed of capacity expansion far exceeds the growth of downstream demand. Over the past two years, new production capacity of domestic polyester filament yarn has been intensively released, while the growth rate of terminal textile and garment exports has slowed, and the domestic market has been flat due to weak consumer confidence. This supply-demand mismatch is directly reflected in the production-sales ratio—the industry average has long been below 70%, and inventory days have continued to rise.
Support from the cost side is also weakening. International oil price fluctuations combined with a loose supply of PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) have continuously lowered the cost center of polyester filament yarn. Under the dual pressure of falling costs and rising inventory, factories have had to adopt a 'price-for-volume' strategy. However, the marginal effect of this strategy is diminishing: each price cut brings smaller improvements in production-sales ratio, and the duration is getting shorter.
Differentiated Responses from Industrial Clusters
From the perspective of regional industrial clusters, weaving enterprises in traditional polyester filament yarn gathering areas such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan are most sensitive to raw material price fluctuations. The weaving start-up rate in these areas is currently maintained at around 60%, far lower than the same period last year. Downstream enterprises generally adopt a cautious 'purchase as needed' strategy, unwilling to bear excessive raw material inventory risks.
It is worth noting that in the production-sales data on June 24, some enterprises achieved an ultra-high ratio of 150%. This usually means that these factories not only digested daily output but also successfully destocked some previous inventory. The common characteristics of such enterprises are: higher product differentiation, or long-term supply agreements signed with major downstream customers. This provides an important insight for the industry—amid intensified competition in general goods, product structure adjustment and customer relationship management are becoming key for enterprises to navigate cycles.