The chemical fiber market is experiencing a clear demand contraction. On June 22, industry data showed the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises was only 39.5%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous day, but still below 40%. This figure reflects a collective cautious stance among downstream weaving and texturing mills.
A closer look at the day's data reveals extreme divergence among enterprises: the highest reached 120%, the lowest was 0%, with the majority concentrated between 10% and 45%. This 'ice and fire' pattern suggests that not all companies face sales difficulties—differentiated products still have support, but conventional polyester filament yarn is encountering significant liquidity issues.
Core Contradiction Lies in Weak Demand
The direct cause of the low sales-to-production ratio is downstream users' cautious observation. The Texcircle editorial team believes this sentiment is not short-term fluctuation but the result of multiple factors.
From the end-apparel market, domestic orders have entered the traditional off-season, while foreign orders haven't warmed up significantly due to overseas inventory cycles. Weaving mill operating rates have been declining since mid-May, and raw material procurement strategies have tightened from 'buy-as-needed' to 'buy-only-when-urgent.' When terminal demand fails to transmit effectively, intermediate raw material inventories naturally accumulate.
Polyester Plants Face Dual Pressure of Inventory and Margins
For upstream polyester plants, low sales ratios directly increase finished product inventory pressure. Industry practice shows that when the sales ratio falls below 50% for consecutive days, plants typically face two options: either cut prices to free up cash or reduce production to control inventory. Either path will impact the pricing system of the chemical fiber chain.
Notably, some enterprises still achieved 120% sales, indicating that differentiated and functional polyester filament yarn products maintain pricing power. Competition for conventional products is more intense, with risk of price wars rising. For buyers, this means the purchasing window for conventional products may be opening, but subsequent price volatility must be monitored.
Weakening Cost Support Leaves Market Without Rebound Momentum
From the cost side, recent crude oil price fluctuations have been volatile, and the price centers of major raw materials like PTA and MEG have shifted downward. This weakening cost support further reduces the price resilience of polyester filament yarn. When upstream raw materials no longer provide a price 'floor,' downstream caution can more easily translate into actual downward price pressure.
Short-Term Outlook and Operational Strategies
Overall, the polyester filament yarn market is likely to maintain a 'weakly stable' pattern over the next 1-2 weeks: price centers will edge down, and sales ratios will fluctuate between 40%-50%. Unless terminal orders see unexpected recovery, the destocking cycle will be hard to end quickly.