29.5% — that is the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises on June 25. Dropping 16.1 percentage points from the previous trading day, it signals near-halted market transactions. Among the sample data, multiple companies reported zero sales, with the highest at just 70%. Behind this number lies the dual squeeze of cost-side collapse and demand-side weakness in the chemical fiber industry chain.
Cost Collapse: Chain Reaction in Polyester Raw Materials
The cost pressure on polyester filament yarn originates from upstream PTA and MEG. Recent fluctuations in international crude oil prices have driven down PX values, compressing PTA processing margins to low levels. The persistent decline in costs has left polyester plants torn between maintaining prices and destocking. According to public industry data, polyester chip prices have been falling for consecutive weeks, directly weakening cost support for polyester filament yarn. The greater the cost decline, the stronger the downstream wait-and-see sentiment, creating a negative feedback loop of 'the more prices fall, the fewer buyers there are.'
Sales Freeze: Weaving Sector Operating Rates Also Under Pressure
A sales rate below 30% is not an isolated phenomenon. Operating rates of downstream weaving enterprises have been declining since mid-June, with the comprehensive operating rate of water-jet looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang falling below 60%. Incremental foreign trade orders for garments are limited, and the domestic market has entered a traditional off-season, with grey fabric inventory accumulation forcing mills to reduce raw material purchases. Among polyester filament yarn sample enterprises, zero sales rates are not exceptions but a true reflection of multiple factories — some companies had no transactions throughout the day, indicating that downstream has no willingness to actively replenish inventory.
Inventory Pressure: From Passive Accumulation to Active Destocking
A sales rate persistently below 50% implies rapidly rising inventory. According to industry survey data, the equity inventory of major polyester filament yarn factories has approached 20 days, with some specifications facing inventory overflow risks. When the sales rate remains below 30% for an extended period, factories have no choice but to cut production or reduce prices to release pressure. Currently, some polyester plants have announced production cut plans ranging from 10% to 20%, but whether this can effectively stop the decline depends on cost stabilization and terminal order recovery.
Regional Industrial Zones: Divergent Reactions in Shengze, Changxing
As major production and sales areas for polyester filament yarn, market sentiment varies significantly across Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan. In Shengze, due to a relatively higher proportion of foreign trade orders, some differentiated products like cationic yarn and sea-island yarn still see sporadic transactions, but conventional varieties face sluggish sales. In Changxing, where water-jet looms dominate, the shutdown rate has risen above 30%, and raw material procurement has nearly ceased. In Xiaoshan, some polyester plants have begun implementing production-limiting and price-stabilizing strategies, attempting to stabilize spot prices through supply contraction.
Price Outlook: Short-Term Weakness, Mid-Term Depends on Cost and Policy
In terms of price trends, the three major varieties of polyester filament yarn — POY, FDY, and DTY — have all declined to varying degrees. The price of POY 150D has fallen near its year-to-date low, with processing spreads continuously narrowing. In the short term, without a significant rebound in costs, polyester filament yarn prices are likely to remain under pressure. Mid-term focus points include: first, whether the intensity of polyester plant production cuts can be sustained and expanded; second, when downstream weaving enterprises will initiate post-off-season replenishment cycles; and third, whether macro-level stable growth policies will emerge to stimulate terminal consumption.