On June 24, the average sales rate of polyester filament yarn among sample enterprises stood at 45.6%, up 11.4 percentage points from the previous trading day. Although this figure remains below the industry's 'weak equilibrium' threshold of 50%, the magnitude of the rebound warrants attention—it suggests that aggressive price-cutting by some mills did temporarily stimulate downstream purchasing. However, a breakdown of the sample data reveals extreme divergence: the highest rate reached 150%, while the lowest was only 10%. Leading mills achieved rapid destocking through concessions, while most small and medium enterprises failed to secure effective orders in the price game. This 'hot-and-cold' sales structure precisely reflects the fragmentation and uncertainty on the demand side of the current chemical fiber supply chain.
The Inventory Logic Behind the Sales Rate Rebound
A 45.6% sales rate remains low over a longer cycle. A healthy operating rate typically needs to be above 70%; below 50% indicates passive inventory accumulation. The June 24 rebound is essentially a 'price-for-volume' exchange driven by previous inventory pressure—every 1% price cut by mills yields marginal order volume improvement, but does not alter the overall supply-demand imbalance. On the cost side, upstream PTA and ethylene glycol prices have been oscillating recently, providing no clear cost support for polyester filament. Processing margins for polyester plants have been squeezed, further weakening their willingness to sustain price cuts. In other words, the sustainability of this sales rate recovery heavily depends on whether downstream buyers are willing to 'bottom-fish' and replenish inventory at current levels.
Downstream Weaving Mills' Purchasing Sentiment
For major weaving clusters such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshao, the current period coincides with both the traditional off-season and summer power rationing policies. Loom operating rates generally hover between 60% and 70%, gray fabric inventories are high, and terminal garment orders have yet to show clear signs of recovery. Against this backdrop, weaving mills have generally shifted their raw material procurement strategy to 'buy-as-needed, replenish-on-demand,' with very few engaging in strategic stockpiling. The price cuts by some polyester filament mills on June 24 essentially tested the downstream 'psychological price line.' Examining the actual transaction structure, low-spec products (e.g., POY 75D/36F) saw significantly higher volumes, while standard specs (e.g., FDY 150D/96F) only maintained basic demand-driven turnover. This indicates that downstream buyers are more inclined to lock in short-term price spreads rather than betting on a future price rally.
Implications for Chemical Fiber Price Trends
In the short term, polyester filament prices still face downward pressure. The 'double kill' of inventory accumulation and weak demand has yet to reverse, and price wars among mills may further escalate. However, it is worth noting that current absolute prices are approaching the cash cost line for some small and medium mills, limiting the room for further deep declines. Over the next month, polyester filament prices are expected to enter a phase of 'low-level oscillation, seeking direction.' In the medium to long term, the industry must be wary of the cumulative risk of overcapacity. New polyester filament capacity additions planned for 2025-2026 remain intensive. If terminal demand fails to keep pace, a sales rate persistently below 60% could become the new normal, inevitably triggering industry consolidation, with small polyester plants lacking cost advantages potentially forced to exit the market.