On June 22, trading activity in the chemical fiber market hit a low point. Official data from China Customs and industry sources show that the average sales-to-production ratio of sample polyester filament yarn enterprises was only 39.5%, a marginal increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure reflects that the purchasing willingness of downstream weaving and texturing sectors has fallen to a yearly low, with the market stuck in a stalemate of 'prices without transactions.'
The Demand Truth Behind Production-Sales Data
Looking at the production-sales data from 20 sample enterprises on that day, most companies reported ratios between 0% and 45%, with two companies at zero and several hovering around 10%-20%. Only a few achieved higher levels of 70% or 120%, but the overall distribution was heavily skewed to the weak side. This means that even though upstream polyester filament factories maintained their quoted prices, end users chose to digest existing inventories, with very limited new order replenishment.
Such a pattern of 'most production-sales ratios below 40%' is rare for this time of year. June typically marks the start of the traditional off-season for textiles, but this year's wait-and-see sentiment is notably stronger. The reasons are twofold: first, the accelerated outflow of downstream gray fabric and garment orders, as Southeast Asian capacity recovery continues to squeeze domestic demand; second, increased volatility in polyester raw material prices recently, making downstream buyers reluctant to lock in orders, preferring to wait for clearer cost signals.
Industrial Chain Transmission: Everyone Is Waiting
The core contradiction in the current chemical fiber market lies in the dual uncertainty of costs and demand. International crude oil prices swing between macro rate hike expectations and geopolitical risks, directly affecting polyester raw materials like PX and PTA, making cost support for polyester filament yarn erratic. Meanwhile, end-use apparel brands are cautious about second-half orders, with some international buyers shortening procurement cycles to under 45 days, further weakening the inventory replenishment motivation of weaving mills.
Feedback from regional industrial clusters such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshao indicates a slight decline in operating rates, with some small and medium-sized weaving mills opting for production cuts or rotating shifts to cope with insufficient orders. This reverse pressure from end users to upstream eventually manifested in the June 22 production-sales data—downstream buyers are not unwilling to purchase, but rather afraid to buy and see no urgent need.
Short-Term Outlook: Weak Adjustment Remains the Main Theme
Considering both supply and demand, the polyester filament yarn market is likely to maintain low-level fluctuations over the next 1-2 weeks. Without sudden positive catalysts on the cost side (such as a sharp rebound in crude oil or concentrated maintenance of PTA units), the production-sales ratio is unlikely to break through the 40%-50% range. For upstream polyester plants, inventory pressure is building, and some may resort to price promotions to ease cash flow constraints.
For buyers and foreign trade enterprises, the core strategy at this stage should be 'control inventory and lock in price windows.' When the market direction is unclear, avoid large-scale chasing of gains or panic selling. Instead, take advantage of short-cycle replenishment opportunities to operate flexibly.